NVIDIA (NVDA) Valuation & Competitive Position vs Google TPUs: Analysis of Market Dynamics and Risks

This analysis is based on a Reddit discussion [4] and market data [0,1,2,3]. NVIDIA (NVDA) closed at $176.51 (-2.08%) on Nov30,2025, with a 13% drop over the past month due to competition fears from Google’s TPUs [3]. Q3 2025 revenue reached $57B (62% YoY increase) driven by AI demand [1], while gross margin stood at 73.4% (1.2% YoY decline) [1]. NVDA holds 80-90% of the AI GPU market share [2], but Google’s Ironwood TPU could capture 10-20% of Google Cloud’s market share over time [2]. Reddit arguments include bullish views (CUDA ecosystem lead, Blackwell cost-effectiveness) vs bearish views (valuation, margin pressure) [4].

• Cross-domain: NVDA’s CUDA ecosystem is a stronger barrier than pure performance metrics [2].
• Competitive: TPU competition may affect margins but not immediate market share [2].
• Market: AMD’s outperformance (1.53% Nov30) reflects alternative investment sentiment [0].

• Valuation: PE ratio (43.69x) exceeds semiconductor industry average [0].
• Margin Pressure: Gross margin declined 1.2% YoY [1].
• Competition: Google’s TPU could erode Google Cloud market share [2].

• AI Demand Growth: Q3 revenue up 62% YoY [1].
• Ecosystem Lock-in: CUDA platform retains developer loyalty [2].

• NVDA: $176.51 (Nov30), PE43.69, Q3 revenue $57B (+62% YoY), 80-90% AI GPU market share [0,1,2].
• AMD: $217.52 (+1.53% Nov30) [0].
• TPU Competition: Potential 10-20% share in Google Cloud [2].