NVIDIA (NVDA) Investment Case Amid TPU Competition and Blackwell Chip Rollout

The discussion围绕 NVIDIA’s valuation and competition with TPUs highlights conflicting views, but market data provides clearer context. NVIDIA retains an 80-90% share of the AI chip market [4] due to its CUDA ecosystem lock-in and strong demand for Blackwell chips (13k samples shipped in Q3 2025 [1]). While Google’s Ironwood TPUs offer 2x performance per watt [5], their adoption remains niche. NVIDIA’s current P/E ratio is 43x [3] (lower than the Reddit claim of ~50x), and net profit margin stands at 53% [3], indicating no immediate margin pressure despite competition fears.

1. Ecosystem Moat
   : NVIDIA’s CUDA platform is a stronger competitive advantage than raw performance, as switching to TPUs requires significant retooling for developers.
2. Valuation Reality
   : The 43x P/E ratio is justified by analyst consensus (Buy rating with $250 target [3]) and 27.62% YTD return [3].
3. Long-Term vs Short-Term Risks
   : Margin compression from TPUs is a long-term risk, but current margins remain high, and Blackwell’s ramp is expected to boost gross margins to mid-70s by H2 2026 [1].

• Margin Compression
  : Increasing TPU adoption could reduce NVIDIA’s high margins over time [5].
• Supply Chain
  : Blackwell chip production faces potential HBM supply constraints [1].
• Valuation Premium
  : The 43x P/E ratio makes NVDA vulnerable to market corrections [3].

• Blackwell Ramp
  : Strong demand for Blackwell chips (13k samples shipped) is expected to drive growth [1].
• AI Demand
  : Rapid AI workload expansion supports NVIDIA’s core business [3].
• Ecosystem Expansion
  : CUDA’s dominance continues to attract developers [4].

• Current NVDA price: $176.51 [2]
• Analyst consensus target: $250 (+41.6%) [3]
• Market share: 80-90% [4]
• P/E ratio:43x [3]
• Net profit margin:53% [3]
• Blackwell samples shipped:13k [1]

This summary provides objective data for decision-making without investment recommendations.