Altimmune (ALT) Market Analysis Report

On November 23, 2025 (EST), a Reddit post discussed Altimmune (NASDAQ: ALT) with three key perspectives:

• Bullish (Score:6):
  Claimed ALT was undervalued ($<5) and cited upcoming catalysts: 48-week IMPACT trial data, FDA End of Phase 2 meeting, and 21% short interest as potential “rocket fuel.”
• Bearish (Score:1):
  Warned peer comparisons to billion-dollar acquisitions were premature without peer-reviewed 48-week data showing superior clinical benefit or partnerships.
• Neutral (Score:1):
  Highlighted strong transparency via a 180-page Lancet publication of 24-week Phase IIb data (vs. typical <10 pages).

The post framed this as awareness, not investment advice [Event Input].

• Price Movement:
  ALT closed at $5.26 on November 30, 2025—above the $5 threshold mentioned in the Reddit post [0]. The stock has risen 29.24% in the past month, aligning with bullish sentiment around upcoming milestones [5].
• Sentiment Shift:
  Analyst consensus remains strongly bullish (80% Buy ratings, consensus target $25.00, +375% upside) [5]. Recent news coverage emphasized pemvidutide’s “class-leading tolerability” and $1B+ market opportunity [1][4].
• Short Interest Catalyst:
  A 24.5% short interest (as of October 31, 2025) creates potential for a short squeeze if positive news emerges [3].

• Financial Metrics:
  • Market Cap: $464.23M [0].
  • Q3 2025 Net Loss: $19.0M (-$0.21/share) [3].
  • Cash Reserves: $211M (as of September 30, 2025)—sufficient to fund operations into 2027 [3].
  • EPS (TTM): -$1.07 [0].
• Clinical Data:
  • 24-week IMPACT Trial: 58% MASH resolution (vs. 20% placebo) but no statistically significant fibrosis improvement [1][2].
  • 48-week Data: Expected Q4 2025 (non-invasive fibrosis tests, no biopsies) [2][3].
• Price & Volume:
  • Day Range (Nov30): $5.16-$5.33 [0].
  • Volume: 1.54M (vs. 2.83M 30-day avg) [0].

• Direct:
  Altimmune (ALT) [0].
• Related Sectors:
  Biotech, MASH/obesity therapeutics [4].
• Peers:
  • Akero Therapeutics (acquired by Novo Nordisk for $5.2B in 2025 for MASH drug efruxifermin) [4].
  • Viking Therapeutics (23% short interest, MASH/obesity focus) [3].

• Exact timing of Q4 milestones (FDA End of Phase 2 meeting and 48-week data readout) [2][3].
• Current short interest (as of November 2025—latest data is October 31) [3].
• Whether 48-week non-invasive fibrosis data will meet FDA expectations for Phase III design [2].

• Bullish Case:
  Strong 24-week MASH resolution data, high short interest, and favorable peer acquisition multiples (Akero’s $5.2B exit) [4].
• Bearish Case:
  Unprofitability, missed 24-week fibrosis endpoint, and reliance on a single lead drug (pemvidutide) [1][3].

• 48-week IMPACT trial data (fibrosis markers and weight loss trends) [2].
• FDA feedback from End of Phase 2 meeting (Phase III trial design) [3].
• Short interest changes (potential squeeze or covering) [3].

• Unprofitability:
  ALT has a negative TTM EPS (-$1.07) and significant operating losses, which may impact long-term viability [0][3].
• Clinical Risk:
  The 24-week trial missed the fibrosis improvement endpoint—a critical MASH treatment target. Investors should monitor whether 48-week data addresses this gap [1][2].
• Volatility:
  A 24.5% short interest increases risk of extreme price swings (either up from positive news or down from negative developments) [3].
• Funding Risk:
  While current cash reserves are sufficient, ongoing R&D costs for Phase III trials may require future capital raises [3].