NVIDIA vs Google TPUs: Competitive Analysis & Investment Considerations

NVIDIA’s stock declined 2.08% on 2025-11-30 amid TPU competition concerns [0], while AMD rose 1.53% [0]. The company’s FY2025 data center revenue accounted for 88.3% of total revenue with a 53.01% net margin [0]. Key competitive strengths include the CUDA ecosystem (4M developers [3]) and Blackwell/Rubin chips (300% faster than TPU v5p [6]), though TPUs have 2-3x inference cost advantage [1].

• NVIDIA’s ecosystem (CUDA) and upcoming Rubin chips (Q32026 [4]) are critical long-term moats against TPU competition.
• Margin pressure from TPUs and customer concentration (2 customers =39% revenue [3]) are top risks.
• Meta’s potential 600k TPU deployment [5] could impact NVIDIA’s revenue if finalized.

• Risks
  : Margin erosion (from current 53% [0] to lower levels [1]), customer concentration [3], TPU adoption by key clients [5].
• Opportunities
  : $500B order backlog [2], Rubin chip launch (Q32026 [4]), CUDA ecosystem growth [3].

NVIDIA’s investment case is mixed, with strong ecosystem and pipeline balanced by competition and margin risks. Critical monitoring factors include Q42025 earnings, Rubin launch progress, Meta’s TPU deal finalization, and CUDA developer growth.