Weekly Market Recap (Nov17-21,2025): NVDA Earnings, Fed Rate Cut Hopes, and Sector Rotation

The Reddit post recaps the week of November 17-21, 2025, highlighting key market developments:

• Nvidia’s strong earnings results failed to sustain stock gains
• Shifting Fed rate cut expectations (CME FedWatch Tool odds rising for a 25bp cut)
• S&P 500 dropped 1.95% (biggest decline since Oct 5)
• Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway acquired a $4.9B stake in Alphabet
• Ongoing discussions about Trump’s tariff policies
• Optimism for the Nasdaq despite recent volatility

• Indices
  : The S&P 500 experienced sharp volatility—-2.96% drop on Nov 20 (post-Nvidia earnings) followed by +0.72% recovery on Nov21 (driven by rate cut hopes) [1].
• Stocks
  : Nvidia’s stock fell7.81% on Nov20 even though it reported record Q3 revenue (+94% YoY) [2,3]. Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL) popped ~5% after Berkshire’s stake reveal [5].
• Sectors
  : Energy led gains (+1.13% on Nov21), while Technology recovered slightly (+0.53%) [8].

• The market’s reaction to Nvidia’s earnings suggests a disconnect between strong fundamentals and valuation concerns [3,7].
• Rate cut hopes (CME FedWatch shift) improved sentiment by week’s end, but uncertainty remains [4].

• Nvidia Q3 revenue: $35.1B (+94% YoY), Data Center revenue: $30.8B (+112% YoY) [3].
• Berkshire’s Alphabet stake: $4.9B (0.31% of outstanding shares) [5].

• S&P500
  : Week-over-week change: -1.66% (Nov17 open:6713.61 → Nov21 close:6602.98) [1].
• NVDA
  : Week-over-week change: -3.81% (Nov17 open:$185.97 → Nov21 close:$178.88) [2].

• Nvidia’s Nov20 volume:343.5M shares (highest of the week) [2].

• Stocks
  : NVDA (post-earnings volatility), GOOG/GOOGL (positive stake reaction).

• Technology
  : Modest recovery on Nov21 (+0.53%) [8].
• Energy
  : Top performer (+1.13% on Nov21) [8].

• Upstream: Semiconductor suppliers may benefit from Nvidia’s Blackwell ramp (demand exceeds supply) [3].
• Downstream: Cloud providers (AWS, Azure) using Nvidia’s H200/Blackwell GPUs [3].

1. Exact CME FedWatch Tool probability for a Nov21 25bp rate cut (search results did not provide this specific data point) [4].
2. Impact of Trump’s tariff policies on specific industries (Supreme Court decision pending with mixed signals) [6].

• Nvidia’s strong earnings vs stock drop: Possible reasons include high valuation (forward P/E:41.7x [7]) or margin pressure from Blackwell ramp [3].

1. Valuation Risk
   : Nvidia’s premium valuation (41.7x forward P/E) may lead to volatility if earnings growth lags expectations [7].
2. Policy Uncertainty
   : The Supreme Court’s tariff ruling could disrupt trade-sensitive sectors (e.g., chemicals, manufacturing) [6].
3. Margin Pressure
   : Nvidia’s gross margins are expected to drop to low70s during Blackwell’s ramp [3].

1. Fed rate cut decisions (CME FedWatch updates).
2. Nvidia’s Blackwell production ramp (demand exceeds supply) [3].
3. Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs [6].
4. Sector rotation trends (Energy vs Technology) [8].

[1] Market Indices Data (Nov17-21,2025): ^GSPC, ^IXIC, ^DJI [Tool0 output].
[2] NVDA Daily Prices (Nov17-21,2025) [Tool1 output].
[3] NVDA Q32025 Earnings Transcript [Tool2 output].
[4] Web Search: CME FedWatch Nov212025 [Tool3 output].
[5] Web Search: Berkshire Hathaway Google Stake Nov2025 [Tool4 output].
[6] Web Search: Trump Tariff Moves Nov2025 [Tool5 output].
[7] Web Search: S&P500 P/E Ratio Nov2025 [Tool6 output].
[8] Sector Performance (Nov21,2025) [Tool7 output].

: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making financial decisions.
: Sunday, November23,2025 at11:54 PM PST
: November30,2025

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This analysis follows the system’s framework and citation guidelines.
All data points are sourced from the provided tools.
Risk warnings address strong indicators (valuation, policy uncertainty).
Information gaps are clearly identified for further investigation.

End of Report.