Weekly Market Recap (Nov17-21,2025): Nvidia Earnings, Fed Rate Cut Shifts & Tech Sector Volatility

The week of Nov17-21,2025 saw volatile tech performance and shifting macro expectations. Nvidia (NVDA) reported Q3 revenue of $35.1B (up94% YoY) and data center revenue of $30.8B (up112% YoY) [1], but guidance for low70s gross margins during Blackwell ramp-up led to a ~4.14% stock drop [1,5]. Fed rate cut odds shifted from <50% to71% [2], lifting indices slightly on Nov21 but not offsetting tech weakness: Nasdaq fell ~1.91% and S&P500 dropped ~1.04% [0,6]. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) disclosed a $4.9B Alphabet (GOOGL) stake [3], signaling AI/cloud confidence. A Reddit post’s 1.95% S&P500 drop claim was likely a typo (Nasdaq’s ~1.91% aligns) [0,5].

Cross-domain connections:

1. Macro-Micro Link
   : Fed rate cut hopes may support tech, but Nvidia’s 43x P/E limits upside [0,1].
2. Investor Confidence
   : Buffett’s GOOGL stake contrasts short-term tech volatility with long-term AI/cloud belief [3].
3. Product Impact
   : Blackwell’s “staggering demand” underscores AI infrastructure’s growing role [1].

• Valuation: Nvidia’s 43x P/E exceeds semiconductor averages (~20x) [0].
• Margin Pressure: Blackwell ramp compresses margins to low70s [1].
• Supply Chain: Blackwell’s 7 custom chips face component shortage risks [1].
• Policy: Trump’s tariff extensions may disrupt tech supply chains [4].

• AI Growth: Blackwell demand drives long-term NVDA and supply chain growth [1].
• Rate Cuts: Higher odds reduce tech borrowing costs [2].

Critical data points:

• Nvidia Q3 Revenue: $35.1B (94% YoY) [1].
• Blackwell: Full production, Q4 revenue exceeds estimates [1].
• Fed Cut Odds:71% (Dec 25bp) [2].
• Buffett’s GOOGL Stake: $4.9B [3].
• Indices: Nasdaq (-1.91%), S&P500 (-1.04%) [0,6].
• NVDA: -4.14% weekly drop [5].

This summary provides objective context without recommendations.