Black Friday 2025 Sales Analysis: Nominal Growth, Digital Shift, and Fraud Risks

Black Friday 2025 retail sales increased by4.11% nominally YoY, per Mastercard SpendingPulse data cited in PYMNTS [1]. Adjusting for the current3% inflation rate, real growth is approximately1.11%, indicating consumers are spending more but not necessarily purchasing additional items [1]. The digital shift continued, with e-commerce sales surging by10.4% YoY versus just1.7% for in-store sales [1]. This gap reflects consumer preference for convenience and targeted online deals, but also correlates with rising fraud risks:72% of shoppers used unfamiliar sites, leading to20% experiencing non-delivery and16% receiving counterfeits [1].

1. Cross-Domain Correlation
   : The surge in e-commerce (10.4% growth) directly aligns with increased fraud incidents, as consumers prioritize deals over verifying site legitimacy [1].
2. Inflation Impact
   : Modest real growth (~1.11%) suggests inflation is eroding consumer purchasing power, limiting the actual volume of goods sold [1].
3. Structural Shift
   : The widening online/offline gap may force brick-and-mortar retailers to accelerate digital transformation or risk losing market share [1].

• Fraud
  : Rising incidents (20% non-delivery,16% counterfeits) could erode consumer trust in digital shopping [1].
• Inflation
  : Continued price increases may further reduce real spending in subsequent holiday periods [1].

• Retailers
  : Investing in e-commerce infrastructure and fraud prevention tools can capture digital growth while mitigating risks [1].
• Payment Providers
  : Demand for enhanced security solutions (e.g., fraud detection) is likely to rise as retailers and consumers seek protection [1].

• Nominal Black Friday sales growth:4.11% YoY; real growth: ~1.11% (after3% inflation) [1].
• E-commerce vs in-store growth:10.4% vs1.7% [1].
• Fraud statistics:72% used unfamiliar sites;20% non-delivery;16% counterfeits [1].
• Top scam red flags: too-good-to-be-true prices (52%), poor grammar (48%), unnecessary personal info requests (49%) [1].