Weekly Market Analysis (Nov17-21,2025): NVDA Earnings, Fed Rate Cuts & Geopolitical Risks

The week of Nov17-21,2025 saw significant market volatility driven by multiple factors: NVDA’s strong Q3 FY26 earnings ($57B revenue, +62% YoY) [4] that failed to sustain gains (NVDA dropped 7.81% post-earnings [0]), Buffett’s $5.35B GOOGL stake [6], Fed rate cut probability rising to 86.4% [5], and S&P500/Nasdaq sharp drops followed by partial recovery [2,3]. Cross-domain links include AI sector sentiment (NVDA’s drop vs Buffett’s GOOGL stake) and macroeconomic factors (rate cuts vs geopolitical risks from Venezuela [8]).

1. AI Sector Contradiction
   : While NVDA’s post-earnings drop signals AI valuation concerns [0], Buffett’s GOOGL stake indicates long-term confidence in AI [6].
2. Volatility Drivers
   : Market swings were fueled by mixed signals—rate cut hopes supporting recovery vs AI bubble and geopolitical risks weighing on sentiment [2,3,5,8].
3. Geopolitical-Economic Link
   : Venezuela tensions could disrupt energy markets (Venezuela is a top oil exporter) [8], impacting global inflation and Fed policy decisions [5].

:

• Geopolitical Instability
  : Trump’s Venezuela threats may trigger energy price spikes and market volatility [8].
• AI Valuation Bubble
  : NVDA’s post-earnings drop suggests potential corrections in AI-related stocks [0].
• Rate Cut Uncertainty
  : If Fed does not cut rates as expected, markets could react negatively [5].

:

• Rate Cut Support
  : High Fed cut probability may boost market sentiment into Q4 [5].
• AI Long-Term Potential
  : Buffett’s GOOGL stake highlights AI as a long-term growth area [6].

: Investors should monitor Venezuela developments and AI sector valuations closely.

• NVDA Q3 FY26: $57B revenue (+62% YoY), EPS $1.3 (+4% vs expected) [4].
• GOOGL: Buffett’s 17.846M shares valued at $5.35B [6].
• Indices: S&P500 dropped 2.96% on Nov20 then recovered 0.72% [2]; Nasdaq dropped4.25% then0.5% [3].
• Fed Rate Cut:86.4% probability for Dec2025 [5]