2025 Black Friday Record Online Sales: Growth Drivers & Underlying Risks

2025 Black Friday online sales hit a record $11.8 billion (9.1% YoY, Adobe Analytics [1]). Salesforce reported total U.S. spending of $18 billion (3% YoY) with luxury apparel leading [2]. However, Salesforce data reveals average prices rose by7% YoY vs.1% order volume decline, indicating negative real growth due to inflation [4]. Reddit discussions highlighted inflation, credit card debt, and wealth inequality as key concerns. Internal data [0] shows AMZN (+0.86%) and WMT (+1.11%) gained modestly, while SHOP (-0.85%) declined.

1. Inflation Erosion
   : Nominal growth is driven by price hikes, not volume, suggesting weaker demand [4].
2. Wealth Concentration
   : Top10% households account for ~49% of total spending [8], with higher earners (> $150k) increasing holiday spending by 26% YoY [9].
3. AI Impact
   : AI-driven traffic surged by805% YoY, contributing to global sales growth [5].

• Post-holiday underspending risk due to front-loaded deals [user input].
• Credit card delinquencies: 46% of consumers carry balances (Equifax Q32025 [7]).
• Unsustainable growth: Reliance on top10% households raises long-term concerns [8].

• AI adoption: Tech-enabled retailers benefited from AI-driven traffic [5].
• Luxury segment resilience: Top category for sales growth [2].

• Nominal online sales: $11.8B (9.1% YoY [1]).
• Real growth: Negative (7% price increase vs. 1% volume decline [4]).
• AI traffic surge:805% YoY [5].
• Major retailers: AMZN (+0.86%), WMT (+1.11%), SHOP (-0.85%) [0].