U.S. Black Friday 2025 Online Sales Hit Record $11.8B: Research vs. Social Media Perspectives

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• According to Adobe Analytics: 2025 Black Friday online sales hit $11.8B, up 9.1% YoY, driven by AI-assisted deal hunting and mobile shopping dominance (source: mlq.ai).
• Mastercard SpendingPulse: Ecommerce sales rose 10.4% while in-store grew only 1.7% (source: emarketer.com).
• Salesforce: AI agents influenced $30B of U.S. online sales on Black Friday (source: pymnts.com).
• Research notes BNPL services and extended promotion windows also contributed to growth (source: ts2.tech).

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• Reddit user Reddituser183: Record sales are due to inflation, not real growth (“Who cares, it’s called inflation. Tell me what it is in real dollars.”) (source: Reddit).
• Reddit user szakee: Questions how much sales are driven by credit card debt (“how much of it is CC debt?”) (source: Reddit).
• Reddit user AntiOriginalUsername: Top 10% of households drive consumption, reflecting wealth inequality (“Top10% of households are holding up the consumption economy…”) (source: Reddit).
• Reddit user DoggedStooge: Warns of potential post-holiday underspending (“This may not be a bullish signal… underspending for the remainder of holiday season.”) (source: Reddit).

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Research highlights structural shifts (AI, mobile) boosting online sales, while social media emphasizes macroeconomic concerns (inflation, debt) and inequality. The K-shaped spending pattern (high-income growth vs. lower-income pullback) aligns with both observations. For investors, mega-retailers like Amazon (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT) may benefit from online growth, but post-holiday spending data and debt levels need monitoring to confirm sustainability.