Altimmune (ALT) Market Analysis Report

2025-11-23 21:54:10 (EST) | 2025-12-01

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A Reddit discussion on Altimmune (ALT) highlighted mixed sentiment:

• Bullish (Score:6):
  Claimed ALT was undervalued, citing upcoming catalysts (48-week IMPACT trial data, FDA End of Phase 2 meeting), 21% short interest (potential short squeeze), and strong transparency via a recent Lancet publication (180-page peer review supplement).
• Bearish (Score:1):
  Warned valuation vs. billion-dollar acquired peers was premature without full 48-week data; noted past biotech investment losses.
• Neutral (Score:1):
  Praised ALT’s transparency with the Lancet publication.

As of 2025-11-30, ALT’s stock price ($5.26) exceeded the $5 threshold mentioned in the Reddit headline [0].

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ALT has gained 23.2% over the past four weeks, closing at $5.26 (above $5) [2]. The price movement aligns with bullish sentiment around upcoming catalysts, but volume (1.54M) was below the 2.83M average, indicating reduced recent trading interest [0].

• Catalysts:
  48-week IMPACT trial data (expected before year-end) and FDA End of Phase 2 meeting (Q4 2025) are critical for future valuation [1].
• Revenue Potential:
  H.C. Wainwright estimates pemvidutide (ALT’s lead drug) could generate >$1B in peak annual revenue for MASH treatment [4].
• Legal Risk:
  A class-action lawsuit over liver drug trial results was dropped on Nov 26, reducing regulatory uncertainty [5].

Mixed but leaning bullish: The Reddit discussion’s bullish score (6) outpaced bearish (1) and neutral (1) views. The recent lawsuit dismissal and analyst revenue estimates further support positive sentiment.

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Metric	Value	Source
Current Price	$5.26 (+1.74% daily)	[0]
52-Week Range	$2.90–$10.88	[0]
Market Cap	$464.23M	[0]
EPS (TTM)	-$1.07	[0]
Catalyst Timing	48-week data (before year-end), FDA meeting (Q4 2025)	[1]
Peak Revenue Estimate	>$1B (MASH indication)	[4]

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• Direct:
  Altimmune Inc. (ALT, NASDAQ).
• Related Sectors:
  Biotech, pharmaceuticals (MASH/obesity treatment space).
• Peers:
  Metsera (target of Novo Nordisk/Pfizer takeover battle in the obesity/MASH sector) [3].

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1. Short Interest Confirmation:
   The Reddit claim of 21% short interest was not verified via tools; needs further investigation.
2. Peer Valuation Multiples:
   No specific multiples for MASH/obesity sector acquisitions were found (tool3 mentions takeovers but no details).
3. Financial Indicators:
   Failed to retrieve detailed financial data for ALT [5].

• Biotech Trial Risk:
  Positive 48-week data is not guaranteed; negative results could lead to significant price declines.
• Profitability Concerns:
  ALT has negative EPS (-$1.07) and relies on trial success for future revenue [0].
• Valuation Uncertainty:
  Comparing ALT to billion-dollar peers is premature without full clinical data [Event Content].

1. 48-week IMPACT trial data release (before year-end).
2. Outcome of FDA End of Phase 2 meeting (Q4 2025).
3. Short interest levels (to assess potential short squeeze risk).
4. Strategic partnership announcements (to validate valuation vs. peers).

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[0] Ginlix Analytical Database (get_stock_realtime_quote tool).
[1] Yahoo Finance. “Altimmune Announces Third Quarter 2025 Financial…” URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/altimmune-announces-third-quarter-2025-120000351.html.
[2] Yahoo Finance. “Wall Street Analysts Predict a 250.59% Upside in…” URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-analysts-predict-250-145503236.html.
[3] WSJ. “Mamdani Leads Democratic Wins.” URL: https://www.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/bSUQ1qMpANFL5GKZP6UW-WSJNewsPaper-11-5-2025.pdf.
[4] BioSpace. “Altimmune Poised For $1B+ Opportunity as MASH Drug Aces Phase IIb.” URL: https://www.biospace.com/drug-development/altimmune-poised-for-1b-opportunity-as-mash-drug-aces-phase-iib.
[5] Bloomberg Law. “Altimmune Investors Drop Suit Over Liver Drug Trial, Stock Drop.” URL: https://news.bloomberglaw.com/securities-law/altimmune-investors-drop-suit-over-liver-drug-trial-stock-drop.
[6] Reddit Discussion: “Last chance for $ALT under $5.” Timestamp:2025-11-23 21:54 EST.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.