Market Vibe Shift Analysis: November 2025 Risk-Off Phase & AI Bubble Concerns

The market has entered a risk-off phase in November, marked by a ~2.05% drop in the S&P 500 and ~2.91% decline in the Nasdaq, driven by AI bubble concerns (fueled by Michael Burry’s warnings) and shifting Fed rate cut expectations. Key AI leaders like NVIDIA (NVDA) and Palantir (PLTR) have underperformed—PLTR down ~14.88% month-to-date—even as fundamentals remain strong, highlighting a disconnect between price action and fundamentals [0].

• Indices
  : S&P 500 fell 2.05% (Oct 22–Nov 22), Nasdaq dropped 2.91%, and the VIX (volatility index) surged 31.33% indicating rising fear [0].
• Sectors
  : Energy led gains (+1.17%), followed by Consumer Defensive (+0.89%), while Healthcare (-0.016%) and Financial Services (-0.005%) lagged [0].
• Tech Stocks
  : NVDA (AI chip leader) declined 1.25% month-to-date; PLTR (AI software) saw a steeper ~14.88% drop [0].

1. Michael Burry’s AI Bubble Warnings
   : Burry publicly warned of an AI bubble, targeting NVDA and PLTR, and revealed bearish options positions [1][2]. This sparked a spat with Palantir’s CEO Alex Karp [3].
2. Shifting Fed Rate Cut Expectations
   : Market expectations for a December Fed rate cut shifted from nearly 85% to just 1/3 after hawkish FOMC minutes [4][5].
3. Tech Underperformance vs. Fundamentals
   : AI leaders saw price declines even with strong earnings, aligning with Reddit’s observation [0][6].
4. Rotation to Value/Cash
   : Reddit users reported trimming high-growth tech to rotate into cash/value/dividends [6].

• Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
  : Down ~14.88% month-to-date, fueled by Burry’s bearish stance [0].
• NVIDIA (NVDA)
  : Declined 1.25% month-to-date, reflecting mixed sentiment [0].

• Fed Meeting
  : The Dec 10 FOMC meeting will be a key catalyst [4][5].
• AI Sector Monitoring
  : Track price action vs. fundamentals.
• Rotation Trends
  : Watch for further shifts to value sectors [0].
• Fear Gauge
  : VIX levels indicate rising caution but not panic [0][6].

[0] Ginlix Analytical Database (Internal Tools)
[1] Bloomberg. “The AI Bubble Is Ignoring Michael Burry’s Fears.” https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-11-11/ai-bubble-is-ignoring-big-short-michael-burry-chip-depreciation-fears (2025-11-11)
[2] Yahoo Finance. “Michael Burry Warns of AI Bubble – Reveals Bearish Options on Nvidia, Palantir.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/michael-burry-warns-ai-bubble-161639274.html
[3] Yahoo Finance. “This Thanksgiving’s real drama may be Michael Burry …” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/thanksgiving-real-drama-may-michael-193221928.html
[4] Forbes. “What To Expect From The Fed For The Remainder Of 2025.” https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2025/11/18/what-to-expect-from-the-fed-for-the-remainder-of-2025/ (2025-11-18)
[5] Forbes. “Hawkish Fed Minutes Reduce Chance Of An Interest Rate Cut.” https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2025/11/19/hawkish-fed-minutes-reduce-chance-of-an-interest-rate-cut/ (2025-11-19)
[6] Reddit r/Stocks. “Anyone else feeling like the market’s vibe totally shifted this month?” (2025-11-22)

Note: All data as of Nov 22, 2025. Not investment advice.