2025 U.S. Black Friday Online Sales Record—Growth Drivers, Risks, and Context

On November 28, 2025, U.S. Black Friday online sales hit a record $11.8 billion, marking 9.1% year-over-year (YoY) growth per Adobe Analytics (tracking over 1 trillion retail site visits) [1]. Salesforce reported total Black Friday spending (online + in-store) of $18 billion (3% YoY), with luxury apparel/accessories as the top-performing category [2]. Adobe also projected $5.5 billion and $5.9 billion in online sales for the following Saturday and Sunday (3.8% and 5.4% YoY, respectively) [3].

Online sales growth (10.4% YoY, eMarketer [4]) outpaced in-store performance (1.7% YoY [4]), driven by mobile devices (55% of online sales, $6.5 billion, 10% YoY increase) and AI-assisted deal hunting (805% YoY AI tool traffic [5]). The luxury category leadership aligns with data showing the top 10% of U.S. households (earning ≥$250k) account for 48% of consumer spending (up from ~35% in the mid-1990s, Moody’s Analytics [10]).

For real growth context, October 2025 everyday goods inflation was 2.68% YoY (Numerator CPI [6]), suggesting ~6.42% real online sales growth. However, official November CPI is unavailable due to a U.S. government shutdown [7]. Additionally, U.S. credit card balances hit a record $1.23 trillion in Q3 2025 (5.75% YoY [8]), and “buy now, pay later” (BNPL) usage is projected to rise 11% YoY to $20.2 billion in holiday online sales [9], indicating some consumers rely on credit to fund purchases.

1. Digital transformation momentum
   : Mobile shopping and AI-driven deal hunting are accelerating online retail growth, signaling tech’s expanding role in shaping consumer behavior [4], [5].
2. Demand concentration risk
   : Spending concentrated among the top 10% of households makes retail sales vulnerable to shifts in high-income consumer sentiment—Deloitte reported even top earners ($200k+) plan 11% lower holiday spending [10].
3. Credit as a spending enabler
   : Record credit card debt and BNPL growth suggest many consumers are leveraging credit to participate in holiday sales, which could strain post-holiday finances [8], [9].
4. Data gap impact
   : The BLS shutdown delaying November CPI data creates uncertainty in real growth estimates, highlighting systemic risks to economic data accessibility [7].

• Credit risk
  : High credit card debt and BNPL usage may lead to post-holiday delinquencies, especially if real income growth stagnates [8].
• Concentrated demand vulnerability
  : Spending reliance on top earners makes sales fragile if this group cuts back [10].
• Inflation uncertainty
  : Sticky inflation could erode disposable income for lower- and middle-income households, limiting future spending [7].
• Post-holiday underspending
  : Reddit discussions and Deloitte data suggest potential weakness in holiday spending after Black Friday [10].

• AI/tech adoption
  : AI-driven tools and mobile optimization can enhance retail efficiency and customer engagement, offering growth opportunities for tech-focused retailers [5].
• BNPL expansion
  : Rising BNPL usage presents growth prospects for providers in the payment services sector [9].
• E-commerce growth
  : The continued online shift benefits e-commerce platforms and digital-native retailers [4].

2025 U.S. Black Friday online sales reached a record $11.8 billion (9.1% YoY), with online growth outpacing in-store performance. Drivers include mobile shopping (55% of online sales) and AI-assisted deal-hunting. Real growth is estimated at ~6.42% based on October inflation data, though November CPI is unavailable due to a government shutdown. The record sales are accompanied by concerns about credit dependence, wealth inequality, and potential post-holiday underspending. Critical data gaps include official November inflation figures and post-holiday spending trends.