Analysis of U.S. Black Friday Record Online Sales and Market Sentiment

The event centers on Adobe Analytics’ report that U.S. Black Friday online sales hit a record $11.8 billion, marking 9.1% year-over-year (YoY) growth [1]. Complementary data from Salesforce indicates total Black Friday spending reached $18 billion, with a 3% YoY increase and average selling prices (ASP) up 7% [2]. Reddit users’ discussions reveal mixed interpretations: some attribute the record to inflation eroding real growth, while others point to credit card debt ($1.23T in Q3 2025 per NY Fed [3]) and wealth inequality (top 10% of households drive ~50% of consumer spending [4]) as key factors. A minority of users view the sales as a sign of improving disposable income, though most emphasize caution due to potential post-holiday underspending.

1. Nominal vs. Real Growth Disparity
   : The 9.1% online sales growth is nominal; with 7% ASP growth indicating inflation may have contributed significantly, reducing real growth to a modest level.
2. Inequality-Driven Consumption
   : Data supporting top 10% households driving spending [4] aligns with Reddit users’ concerns, suggesting the record sales may not reflect broad-based economic strength.
3. Consumer Stress Indicators
   : Rising credit card debt [3] and fears of post-holiday underspending highlight potential fragility in consumer financial health despite the sales surge.

• Risks
  : Inflation eroding purchasing power, growing credit card debt signaling consumer overextension, a K-shaped economy exacerbating inequality, and possible post-holiday spending contraction.
• Opportunities
  : Strong sales in luxury apparel/accessories (Salesforce’s top category) suggest resilience in high-income segments, presenting potential short-term gains for targeted retail sectors.

The record Black Friday sales data presents mixed signals for the U.S. economy. While nominal figures are unprecedented, adjusted for inflation, real growth is modest. The sales appear to be driven disproportionately by higher-income households amid rising credit card debt, raising concerns about the sustainability of consumer spending. Post-holiday spending trends will be critical to evaluating the true strength of consumer confidence and economic health.

All analysis is based on cited data and market sentiment, with no prescriptive investment recommendations.