U.S. Black Friday 2025 Online Sales Hit Record $11.8B: Growth Drivers and Market Implications

On November 29, 2025, Adobe Analytics reported U.S. Black Friday online sales hit a record $11.8 billion, a 9.1% year-over-year (YoY) increase [2]. Salesforce complemented this with total Black Friday spending (online + in-store) of $18 billion, up 3% YoY, with luxury apparel/accessories as the top category [1]. Adobe also projected $5.5 billion (November 29 Saturday) and $5.9 billion (November 30 Sunday) in online sales, plus a Cyber Monday forecast of $14.2 billion (6.3% YoY) [2].

The news influenced short-term stock performance on November 28 (Black Friday trading day): Amazon (AMZN +0.86%), Walmart (WMT +1.11%), and Target (TGT +0.38%) closed higher, while Macy’s (M -1.28%) declined—reflecting divergence between e-commerce and brick-and-mortar retailers [0]. The Consumer Cyclical sector rose +0.44666%, outperforming most sectors except Communication Services, Financial Services, and Technology [0].

Reddit discussions highlighted three dominant concerns about the sales data’s implications: growth driven by inflation (not real growth), credit card debt-fueled spending, and consumption concentrated among the top 10% of households [1]. These claims align with external data: private October 2025 CPI (from Numerator) shows 2.68% YoY inflation, implying real online sales growth of ~6.4% [3]; U.S. credit card debt stands at a near-record $1.21 trillion [4]; and broader economic data supports a “K-shaped” economy, where high-income households disproportionately drive consumption [4].

Key information gaps include the lack of official October CPI (cancelled due to a government shutdown), making precise real growth calculation impossible [5]; no breakdown of spending by income bracket to verify the top 10% concentration claim; and no post-holiday sales data to assess if Black Friday pulled forward spending from the remainder of the holiday season [1,5].

1. Retail sector divergence
   : E-commerce-focused retailers (AMZN) outperformed brick-and-mortar-heavy Macy’s, reflecting ongoing shifts in consumer shopping behavior and channel preference [0].
2. Data reliability challenge
   : The government shutdown delayed official CPI data, forcing reliance on private metrics, which may affect the accuracy of real growth assessments and subsequent policy decisions [5].
3. Sentiment disconnect
   : Record sales initially lifted retail stocks, but Reddit discussions reveal widespread skepticism about the sales data’s implication for broader economic health—indicating a gap between market reaction and consumer perception [1,0].
4. Wealth inequality’s role
   : The claim that the top 10% of households drove consumption aligns with a K-shaped economy, suggesting limited broad-based economic improvement despite record sales [4].

• Post-holiday spending cannibalization
  : If Black Friday sales pulled forward spending from the remainder of the holiday season, retailers may face inventory gluts and margin pressure in Q4 earnings [1].
• Credit delinquency risk
  : High credit card debt ($1.21 trillion) could lead to increased delinquencies in early 2026, reducing future consumer spending and impacting retail and financial sectors [4].
• Inflation uncertainty
  : Delayed official CPI data (scheduled for December 18) leaves real sales growth unclear, potentially increasing market volatility and complicating Federal Reserve policy decisions [5].

• E-commerce growth momentum
  : Adobe’s projections for Cyber Monday ($14.2B) and weekend sales ($5.5B Sat, $5.9B Sun) suggest continued upside for online retailers if forecasts are met [2].

U.S. Black Friday 2025 online sales reached a nominal record of $11.8 billion (9.1% YoY), with real growth estimated at ~6.4% using private CPI data [2,3]. Major retailers saw mixed stock performance, with e-commerce outperforming brick-and-mortar [0]. Skepticism persists about growth drivers (inflation, credit card debt, wealth inequality), and key risks include post-holiday spending shifts and credit delinquencies [1,4]. Information gaps—such as delayed official CPI and missing income bracket data—limit complete analysis of the sales data’s broader economic implications.

This report provides informational synthesis to support decision-making and is not investment advice.