Analysis of U.S. 2025 Black Friday Record Online Sales and Market Reactions

This analysis is based on the Reuters report [1] published on November 29, 2025, which highlighted Adobe Analytics’ record U.S. Black Friday online sales of $11.8 billion (up 9.1% YoY) and Salesforce’s total spending estimate of $18 billion (up 3% YoY) [2].

Addressing Reddit arguments:

1. Inflation impact
   : Using September 2025 CPI (3.0% YoY) [0], real sales growth is approximately 6.1% (9.1% - 3.0%), indicating inflation is a factor but not the sole driver.
2. Credit card debt
   : Q3 2025 U.S. credit card debt reached a record $1.23 trillion (up 6% YoY) [3], supporting concerns about debt-fueled spending.
3. Wealth inequality
   : The top 10% of households account for over half of U.S. consumer spending [4], aligning with claims of uneven demand.

Market performance: Major retailers (AMZN +0.86%, WMT +1.11%, TGT +0.38%) outperformed the S&P 500 (+0.39%) [0], while Shopify (-0.85%) underperformed, possibly due to competitive pressures or preliminary data gaps.

• Mixed growth drivers
  : Record sales reflect a combination of real economic recovery, inflation, credit utilization, and concentrated spending by high-income households.
• Market divergence
  : Large retailers’ positive performance contrasts with Shopify’s decline, highlighting sector-specific dynamics.
• Post-holiday uncertainty
  : Reddit discussions about potential underspending after Black Friday (due to pre-emptive deal-seeking) raise questions about full holiday season outlook.

• Risks
  : Elevated credit card debt could reduce future spending [3]; inflation may erode real purchasing power [0]; wealth inequality limits broad-based growth sustainability [4].
• Opportunities
  : Retailers that capitalized on Black Friday deals may gain market share; strong online sales signal resilience in e-commerce.
• Time sensitivity
  : Post-holiday spending data (expected in December 2025) will clarify if Black Friday sales cannibalized later purchases.

2025 Black Friday U.S. online sales hit a record $11.8 billion (+9.1% YoY, ~6.1% real growth) with total spending $18 billion (+3% YoY). Sales are influenced by inflation, credit card debt, and wealth inequality. Major retailers outperformed the market, while Shopify underperformed. Post-holiday spending trends will be critical to assessing full holiday season health.

[0] Ginlix InfoFlow Analytical Database (internal)
[1] Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-black-friday-online-sales-hit-record-118-billion-adobe-reports-2025-11-29/)
[2] Salesforce (https://www.salesforce.com/company/news/press-releases/2025/11/30/us-black-friday-spending-totals-18-billion/)
[3] Federal Reserve Bank of New York (https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ciss/ciss_2025.html)
[4] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/cex/2024/annual/household-income.htm)