Cantor Fitzgerald Predicts 70% Upside for LUNR and RKLB Amid Rising Government Space Work

This analysis is based on a December 3, 2025, MarketWatch report [1] detailing Cantor Fitzgerald’s prediction of 70% upside for Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) and Rocket Lab USA (NASDAQ: RKLB) in 2026, driven by growing government work in the space sector.

Short-term market reaction was positive: LUNR rose 2.77% to $9.68, while RKLB climbed 2.39% to $42.90 [0]. Cantor’s forecast aligns with broader analyst consensus: LUNR has a consensus price target of $18 (+86.2% from current), and RKLB’s is $75 (+75.2% from current) [0]. Both companies operate in the Aerospace & Defense sector, with RKLB deriving 61.5% of its 2024 revenue from the U.S. (likely including government contracts) [0]. RKLB shows stronger YTD performance (+71.47%) and a larger market cap ($22.01B) compared to LUNR’s YTD decline (-49.97%) and $1.73B market cap [0].

1. Consensus Alignment
   : Cantor’s 70% prediction is consistent with broader analyst optimism, indicating widespread confidence in government space work driving long-term growth for both firms.
2. Sector Trend Support
   : The growing U.S. government presence in the space sector (evident in RKLB’s revenue breakdown) provides a foundational driver for the forecast.
3. Short-Term Volatility vs. Long-Term Upside
   : Despite recent 30-day price declines (LUNR: -16.53%; RKLB: -30.22% [0]), the analyst outlook suggests underlying growth potential, creating a contrast between current market sentiment and long-term expectations.
4. Information Gap
   : Specific government contracts or programs cited by Cantor Fitzgerald are unavailable, requiring further validation of the forecast’s catalysts.

• Opportunities
  :
  • Growing government space sector work, a key revenue driver for both companies.
  • Alignment with strong analyst consensus targets, indicating market-wide recognition of upside potential.

• Risks
  :
  • Financial Losses
    : LUNR (-106.39%) and RKLB (-50.46%) have significant negative net margins [0], raising concerns about profitability and scaling capabilities.
  • Short Interest
    : LUNR has a 26.90% short float [2], which could amplify price volatility from short covering or selling.
  • Recent Volatility
    : Both stocks have seen steep 30-day declines, reflecting ongoing market uncertainty.
  • Regulatory & Budget Risks
    : Government space contracts are subject to strict oversight and potential budget cuts, which could impact revenue streams.

On December 3, 2025, Cantor Fitzgerald predicted 70% upside for LUNR and RKLB in 2026 due to increasing government space work. The stocks experienced immediate short-term gains, and the forecast aligns with broader analyst consensus. However, the analysis highlights risks including negative net margins, short-term volatility, and an information gap regarding specific government contracts supporting the prediction. Decision-makers should monitor the companies’ path to profitability, government contract developments, and sector regulatory changes to contextualize the long-term outlook.