Supreme Court Tariff Case Analysis: Potential Winners Among AMZN, WMT, AAPL, CAT, NKE, LULU

This analysis is based on the SCOTUSblog report [1] and ABC News coverage [2] of the Supreme Court case Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, challenging presidential tariff authority under IEEPA.

The Supreme Court case centers on two sets of tariffs: “trafficking” tariffs targeting China, Canada, and Mexico over fentanyl concerns, and “reciprocal” tariffs imposing an initial 10% on imports from almost all countries [1]. Legal experts indicate that if the Court rules against the administration, customs officials may be forced to refund more than $90 billion in already collected tariff revenue [2].

• AMZN: $244.34 (-2.34%) [0]
• WMT: $101.60 (+0.13%) [0]
• AAPL: $271.39 (+0.46%) [0]
• CAT: $572.85 (+0.65%) [0]
• NKE: $62.05 (-0.10%) [0]
• LULU: $163.73 (-2.30%) [0]

Nike has explicitly quantified approximately $1 billion in extra costs for fiscal 2026 due to U.S. tariffs, primarily affecting footwear imports [3]. The company has implemented a four-part response including supply chain optimization, reducing China reliance from 16% to high-single digits by 2026, targeted U.S. price increases starting fall 2025, and corporate cost reductions [3]. Despite analysts maintaining an $84.50 price target (36.2% upside), NKE is down 17.64% over the past year [0].

LULU faces particular vulnerability due to reliance on imported goods and removal of the de minimis exemption (which previously exempted imports worth $800 or less from taxes) [5]. Diamond Hill Capital specifically cited tariffs as a key factor in their decision to exit LULU during Q3 2025 [5]. Despite strong fundamentals (16.38% net margin, 42.05% ROE), LULU is down 47.74% over the past year [0].

AMZN faces indirect tariff impacts through its third-party seller ecosystem. CEO Andy Jassy has noted that Trump’s tariffs have made it difficult to predict impacts on Amazon’s businesses, with some merchants unable to pass tariff costs to consumers [3]. However, Amazon’s diversified business model, particularly its dominant AWS segment, provides insulation [0].

WMT has publicly announced impending price increases in response to Trump’s tariffs [3]. AAPL faces potential supply chain impacts but benefits from strong pricing power and diversified manufacturing [0].

As an industrial company with significant North American manufacturing, CAT faces less direct tariff exposure compared to consumer goods companies [0].

1. Refund Eligibility Uncertainty:
   Legal experts warn that refunds might only be available to businesses that actively sued over the tariffs, potentially limiting benefits to companies that took legal action [2].

2. Implementation Timeline Complexity:
   Even with a favorable ruling, the refund process could take 1-2 years based on historical precedents, creating uncertainty about when companies would realize financial benefits [2].

3. Supply Chain Diversification Already Underway:
   Companies like Nike are already reducing China dependency, suggesting that tariff relief may provide temporary margin relief rather than fundamental business model changes [3].

4. Options Market Signals:
   Nike’s options activity indicates bearish sentiment, suggesting market participants may be pricing in continued tariff headwinds [4].

• Legal Uncertainty:
  The Supreme Court’s final ruling scope and implementation details remain unknown, creating substantial investment risk [1][2].
• Refund Process Complexity:
  Legal experts warn the refund process could be “a complete mess” with potential administrative delays and limited eligibility [2].
• Political Retaliation:
  A ruling against the administration could trigger political responses creating new market uncertainties [2].
• Retaliatory Tariffs:
  The analysis doesn’t account for potential retaliatory measures from affected countries, which could offset benefits [2].

• Most Direct Beneficiaries:
  NKE and LULU have the most quantifiable tariff exposure and could see significant margin expansion if refunds are processed [3][5].
• Timeline Considerations:
  The Court’s decision timeline is uncertain, though both parties have requested expedited rulings [1].

1. Supreme Court decision timeline and scope [1]
2. Company guidance on upcoming earnings calls [0]
3. Legislative response from Congress [1]
4. International trade developments and potential retaliatory measures [2]

Based on the analysis,

appears to have the most direct and significant exposure to potential tariff relief, with the company explicitly quantifying $1 billion in annual tariff costs [3]. also shows high vulnerability but faces additional business challenges beyond tariffs [5].

However, users should be aware that legal and implementation uncertainties create substantial risk, and the timing of any potential benefits remains unclear [1][2]. The refund process complexity and limited eligibility could significantly reduce the actual financial impact on these companies [2].

Current analyst sentiment shows strong coverage across all companies, with AMZN having 85% Buy ratings, WMT at 73%, AAPL at 61.5%, and CAT at 47.2% [0]. This suggests that while tariff relief could provide upside potential, particularly for NKE and LULU, market participants are already incorporating various scenarios into their valuations.