Analysis of the Rarity and Context of a 45.5% Swing Trading Return (Sept–Dec 2025)

This analysis is based on a Reddit post [5] where a user asked about the rarity of their mother’s 45.5% swing trading return on their brokerage account since September 1, 2025. The mother has a history of consistently earning $100–200k annually on her own account. Market context shows that from September 2 to December 5, 2025, major US indices posted moderate gains: S&P 500 (+7.32%), NASDAQ (+11.82%), Dow Jones (+5.89%) [0].

Retail trader benchmarks reveal that 70% of retail FX day traders lose money quarterly (SEC report) [1], and 91% of retail Indian equity derivatives traders report losses (SEBI study) [2]. This establishes that profitable retail trading is already rare. Comparing the mother’s return to legendary investor Warren Buffett’s performance: Berkshire Hathaway achieved a 23% annual return in 2024 and a 19.9% compound annual return over 60 years (1965–2024) [3][4]. The mother’s 45.5% return in ~3.25 months far outpaces these figures.

Additionally, hedge funds struggle to replicate such returns due to scale limitations—their large capital bases can move markets, making high-gain strategies (e.g., small-cap stocks, concentrated positions) impractical [5].

1. Exceptional Outperformance
   : The mother’s return is 6–12 times higher than broad market gains over the same period [0], placing her in an extremely small subset of successful retail traders given the high failure rate among peers [1][2].
2. Institutional Scale Constraints
   : The Reddit discussion’s point about hedge fund limitations is valid—large capital sizes prevent institutional players from executing the same strategies that generate such high returns for small retail accounts [5].
3. Skill vs. Luck Unresolved
   : While the mother’s prior annual earnings add credibility [5], the short timeframe (~3 months) makes it impossible to definitively distinguish luck (e.g., a few lucky stock picks) from consistent skill. Long-term performance (1–5 years) would be required for validation [5].

• Risks
  :
  • Luck vs. Skill Risk
    : Short-term returns can be driven by random chance rather than a robust trading strategy. Without extended track record, the sustainability of this performance is uncertain [5].
  • Scale Risk
    : If the account grows significantly, the mother may face the same scale limitations as institutional investors, making it harder to replicate high returns [5].
  • Market Volatility Risk
    : Swing trading involves market timing, which is subject to unexpected market shifts that could erase gains [0].

• Opportunities
  :
  • Exponential Growth Potential
    : If the mother sustains this performance, the account could grow exponentially—though 45.5% quarterly returns are unlikely to persist due to market constraints.
  • Proven Profitability
    : The mother’s history of earning $100–200k annually on her own account suggests she has a successful track record, which may support future performance [5].

• Return Details
  : 45.5% swing trading return from September 1 to December 8, 2025, on a small retail account [5].
• Market Context
  : S&P 500 (+7.32%), NASDAQ (+11.82%), Dow Jones (+5.89%) over the same period [0].
• Retail Trader Benchmarks
  : 70% of retail FX day traders lose money quarterly [1]; 91% of retail Indian equity derivatives traders report losses [2].
• Institutional Comparison
  : Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway: 23% 2024 annual return [3], 19.9% 60-year compound annual return [4].
• Scale Limitations
  : Hedge funds cannot match such returns due to capital size constraints [5].
• Information Gaps
  : Exact rarity metrics for 45%+ 3-month swing trading returns, detailed trading strategy, and full historical performance data are unavailable.