SoftBank & Nvidia's $1B+ Investment in Skild AI Valued at $14B: Market Analysis

This analysis is based on Reuters’ December 8, 2025, report [3] of negotiations between SoftBank and NVIDIA (NVDA) for a $1B+ investment in Skild AI at a $14B valuation, complemented by market data from the Ginlix Analytical Database [0] and industry reports [1][2].

Skild AI, founded in 2023 by former Meta AI researchers, develops foundation models enabling robots to interact with the physical world, targeting warehouses and logistics industries [2]. The startup’s valuation has surged dramatically—from $1.5B in its 2024 Series A round to $14B in 2025, tripling in just five months since July [2]. On the day of the announcement, NVIDIA’s stock price increased by 2.91% to $187.72, outperforming the NASDAQ (-0.26%) and S&P 500 (-0.33%), as investors reacted positively to the company’s diversification beyond generative AI and data centers into real-world AI applications [0].

The deal aligns with NVIDIA’s focus on AI infrastructure, as real-world AI systems require significant GPU computing power, which could drive long-term demand for NVIDIA’s hardware [2]. However, the aggressive valuation has raised concerns about AI bubble risks, particularly in light of Michael Burry’s recent warnings comparing overvalued AI companies to dot-com era peers [1]. This skepticism resonates with broader market discourse about the ease of securing high valuations by associating companies with AI.

1. Market Shift to Real-World AI
   : The investment signals a strategic pivot from generative AI (language/image models) to real-world automation, which could reshape NVIDIA’s revenue dynamics—currently 88.3% derived from data centers [0].
2. Valuation Disparity
   : Skild AI’s 2-year valuation surge (to $14B) highlights the intense hype surrounding real-world AI, contrasting with the maturing generative AI sector.
3. NVIDIA’s Competitive Edge
   : The company’s early investment in robotics AI positions it to capture GPU demand from emerging industrial automation applications, potentially outpacing competitors like AMD and Intel [0].

1. AI Bubble Risk
   : The rapid valuation increase of Skild AI (from $1.5B to $14B in <2 years) raises concerns about a potential AI bubble, as warned by market analyst Michael Burry [1].
2. Execution Risk
   : Skild AI faces challenges in scaling its robot foundation models to commercial use cases [2].
3. Competitive Risk
   : Established tech companies (Google, Meta) may develop competing robot foundation models, threatening Skild AI’s market position [2].
4. Regulatory Risk
   : The Trump administration’s potential robotics decree could impose regulatory burdens on Skild AI’s operations [2].

1. NVIDIA’s Diversification
   : The investment expands NVIDIA’s AI portfolio into high-growth robotics and industrial automation sectors, reducing reliance on data center revenue [0].
2. GPU Demand Growth
   : Real-world AI applications require significant GPU computing power, which could drive long-term revenue growth for NVIDIA [2].
3. Sector Momentum
   : The deal may attract increased investor interest in the robotics and industrial AI sub-sectors [0].

• Investment Details
  : SoftBank and NVIDIA are negotiating a $1B+ investment in Skild AI at a $14B valuation [3].
• NVIDIA Performance
  : 1-day stock return (2025-12-08): +2.91%; market cap: $4.57T [0].
• Skild AI Valuation History
  : Series A (2024): $1.5B; July 2025: $4.7B [2].
• Revenue Context
  : NVIDIA’s current revenue breakdown: 88.3% Data Center, 8.7% Gaming, 1.3% Automotive [0].
• Market Context
  : NASDAQ (-0.26%) and S&P 500 (-0.33%) declined on December 8, 2025, while the Technology sector showed modest gains (+0.016%) [0].
• Affected Instruments
  : NVIDIA (NVDA), SoftBank Group (9984.T), robotics/industrial AI sector stocks [0].