LA Port: Tariff-Driven China Import Decline Offset by Southeast Asian Trade Growth

This analysis is based on the YouTube interview with Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka [1], published on December 9, 2025, where he reported a decline in China imports due to tariffs, partially offset by increased trade with Southeast Asia. Broader market context includes China’s 11-month trade surplus topping $1 trillion, driven by successful diversification to Southeast Asia and the EU [2]. A concurrent Port Tracker report forecasts ongoing U.S. import declines into 2026, with 2025 full-year imports down 1.4% YoY due to tariffs [3]. China’s Premier Li Qiang emphasized the “mutually destructive consequences of tariffs” [4]. Internally tracked market data shows mixed performance for relevant stocks: logistics firms UPS (+1.32%), FDX (-0.27%), ZIM (+0.26%), and retail giants WMT (-0.34%), TGT (+0.24%) [0]. Sector-wise, Industrials (including logistics) rose 0.28%, while Consumer Defensive (retail) fell 0.25% [0].

1. Trade Diversification Trends
   : The LA Port’s shift from China to Southeast Asia aligns with China’s broader strategy to reduce dependency on the U.S. market, evident in its $1 trillion surplus from diversified exports [2].
2. Tariff Impacts Persist
   : The Port Tracker forecast confirms tariffs continue to weigh on U.S. imports, likely altering long-term supply chain configurations [3].
3. Sector-Specific Reactions
   : Mixed stock performance reflects divergent impacts—logistics firms may benefit from new trade routes to Southeast Asia, while retailers face uncertainty amid shifting import costs [0].

: Prolonged tariff uncertainty could lead to supply chain volatility; retailers may face higher costs if alternative sourcing regions don’t match China’s cost efficiency [0].
: Logistics companies focusing on Southeast Asian trade routes could see growth; retailers optimizing supply chains for diversified sourcing may enhance resilience [1, 2].

The Port of Los Angeles reports a tariff-driven decline in China imports, offset by Southeast Asian trade growth. China’s export diversification has yielded a $1 trillion 11-month trade surplus. U.S. imports are forecast to decline 1.4% YoY in 2025, with tariffs remaining a key driver. Relevant stocks show mixed performance: UPS (+1.32%), FDX (-0.27%), ZIM (+0.26%), WMT (-0.34%), TGT (+0.24%), with Industrials up 0.28% and Consumer Defensive down 0.25% [0-4].