2025 Investment Bank Revenue Growth: 10% Rise Driven by Equities Trading Boom, 2026 Stabilization Forecast

This analysis is based on a Seeking Alpha article published on December 10, 2025 [1], which cites Coalition Greenwich estimates projecting a 10% growth in 2025 revenues for the world’s largest investment banks, primarily fueled by a surge in equities trading (driven by equity derivatives, prime services, and cash equities). Further forecasts indicate 2026 global investment bank revenues will stabilize compared to 2025, with equities trading results set to decline by approximately 6% [1].

On December 9, 2025 (the trading day preceding the article’s publication), selected major investment banks showed mixed stock price performance. Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Citigroup © saw gains of 1.13%, 1.16%, and 0.58% respectively [0], likely reflecting investor anticipation or early reaction to the positive 2025 revenue outlook. In contrast, Bank of America (BAC) declined 0.80%, and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) dropped 4.58%. JPM’s decline was attributed to company-specific news about rising 2026 spending and concerns related to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [0], while BAC’s decline appears unrelated to the equities trading boom forecast [0].

1. Revenue Stream Dynamics
   : The equities trading boom is the primary driver of 2025 revenue growth, but the projected 6% 2026 decline in this segment underscores potential volatility. The forecasted 9% growth in advisory and origination revenue in 2026 (with Morgan Stanley and UBS identified as strong performers in these areas) provides a critical offset [1].
2. Market Reaction Disparity
   : Mixed stock performance on December 9 highlights how company-specific factors (e.g., JPM’s spending plans) and macro concerns can overshadow broader sector outlooks, decoupling individual stocks from industry trends [0].
3. Stakeholder Ripple Effects
   : Upstream entities like asset managers and hedge funds relying on investment banks for equities trading services may benefit from 2025’s increased activity but should prepare for potential 2026 adjustments [0].

• Forecast Uncertainty
  : Coalition Greenwich estimates are projections; actual results could differ due to market volatility, regulatory changes, or shifting investor sentiment [1].
• Overreliance on Equities Trading
  : The projected 2026 decline raises concerns about banks’ dependence on this volatile revenue stream [1].
• Company-Specific and Macro Risks
  : As seen with JPM’s decline, internal decisions and external factors (e.g., Fed policy) can significantly impact stock performance, overriding sector-wide positive forecasts [0].

• Advisory/Origination Growth
  : Banks with strong advisory and origination capabilities (e.g., Morgan Stanley, UBS) may capitalize on 2026’s 9% projected growth in this segment to offset equities trading declines [1].
• Near-Term Trading Benefits
  : 2025’s equities trading boom may benefit investors and stakeholders of banks with leading positions in equity derivatives, prime services, and cash equities [1].

This report synthesizes data from the Seeking Alpha article and internal market data to analyze the forecasted 10% 2025 revenue growth for major investment banks, driven by an equities trading boom, and the subsequent 2026 revenue stabilization with a 6% decline in equities trading. Selected banks (GS, MS, C) showed positive stock price reactions on December 9, while JPM and BAC declined due to company-specific and unrelated factors. The forecasted growth in advisory and origination revenue in 2026 highlights the importance of revenue diversification for investment banks.