Analysis Report on Baize Medical (02609.HK) Hitting All-Time Low After 9 Consecutive Days of Decline

Baize Medical (02609.HK) is a healthcare group focused on cancer treatment, owning 6 private hospitals and managing 2 non-profit hospitals [4]. Recently, this stock has become a hot Hong Kong stock, mainly due to its abnormal performance of hitting an all-time low after 9 consecutive days of decline—by December 11, 2025, it had a cumulative drop of 25.9% and closed at 4.30 HKD [3].

In terms of price and volume, today’s trading volume was 924,000 shares, which is below the 30-day average [3]. Among technical indicators, the 14-day RSI is 17.71, in the extremely oversold range, suggesting a potential short-term rebound opportunity; however, the 10-day/20-day/50-day moving averages (4.979/5.530/6.463 HKD) are all above the current price, forming resistance [3].

Regarding market sentiment, today’s active buy-sell ratio was 24:76, with a net active selling of 2.0465 million HKD [3]. On the social media platform Xueqiu, investor sentiment is divided—some focus on oversold rebounds, while others worry about continued declines [2]. Additionally, the news that Green Economy (01315.HK) sold all its holdings in Baize Medical on December 8 may put extra pressure on the stock price [1].

Fundamentally, the 2025 interim report shows that the company’s revenue increased by 0.7% year-on-year to 5.747 billion RMB, but net profit was a loss of 20.3 million RMB, mainly due to listing expenses and business expansion investments [4]. The current price-to-book ratio is 3.44x, which is relatively high for a company still in loss [2].

1. Divergence Between Technicals and Fund Flows
   : The extremely oversold RSI (17.71) diverges from net active selling flows, implying potential short-term rebound momentum, but subsequent fund flow changes need to be monitored [3].
2. Valuation-Performance Mismatch
   : The 3.44x price-to-book ratio is significantly higher than the average of loss-making peers in the industry, reflecting high market expectations for future growth earlier, but current losses and lack of clear growth catalysts may lead to valuation correction pressure [2][4].
3. Impact of Institutional Behavior
   : Green Economy’s full-scale sell-off may raise market doubts about the company’s development prospects, further intensifying short-term selling pressure [1].
4. Emerging ESG Risks
   : Huazheng Index downgraded the company’s ESG rating to CCC [5], which may affect long-term institutional investors’ allocation decisions and increase stock price volatility.

• Valuation Risk
  : High price-to-book ratio, with valuation lacking support amid losses [2].
• Performance Uncertainty
  : The company has continued to lose money since listing, and cost pressure from business expansion may persist [4].
• Volatility Risk
  : Historical volatility of 35.99% makes the stock price vulnerable to market sentiment and short-term news [3].
• Lack of Catalysts
  : No clear positive events (e.g., business breakthroughs, policy support) have emerged recently, leaving no driver for price increases [2].

• Oversold Rebound Opportunity
  : RSI is in the extremely oversold range, potentially leading to a technical rebound in the short term [3].
• Long-Term Growth of Medical Sector
  : The healthcare industry benefits from aging population and policy support, with broad long-term growth space. If the company turns profitable in the future, the stock price may recover [4].

Baize Medical (02609.HK) recently became a hot Hong Kong stock due to consecutive declines hitting an all-time low. Technicals show extreme oversold conditions, while fund flows are net selling. Fundamentally, the company is in loss with high valuation, facing risks like performance uncertainty and ESG rating downgrade. Investors should monitor breakthroughs at support (4.30 HKD) and resistance levels (4.979 HKD/5.530 HKD), and make decisions based on their risk tolerance and investment horizon.