Analysis of Baize Medical (02609.HK) as a Hot Hong Kong Stock

Baize Medical (02609.HK) is a Hong Kong-listed company that provides integrated oncology screening, diagnosis, treatment, and rehabilitation services [0]. As of the close on December 12, 2025, its closing price was HK$4.50, with a market capitalization of approximately HK$5.933 billion [1]. The core reasons why this stock has recently become a hot Hong Kong stock include: being included in the Stock Connect in September 2025, increasing liquidity and attention from mainland investors [2]; initial listing (June 2025) offering price of HK$4.22, closing up 42.2% to HK$6.00 on the first day [2]; in September 2025, it rose a cumulative 192% over two consecutive days, then fluctuated downward, attracting short-term investors [2]; recently, Lusen sold all its holdings for a profit of HK$18.4 million, triggering renewed market attention [1][2].

1. Liquidity and Investor Structure
   : After inclusion in the Stock Connect, northbound capital had a net inflow of HK$328 million [2], but the shareholding structure is relatively concentrated (controlling shareholder Xu Xu holds 51.75% [1]), which may affect stock price stability.
2. Speculative Trading Characteristics
   : The sharp volatility in the initial listing period and September shows that there are many speculative transactions in this stock, not entirely based on fundamentals [0].
3. Valuation and Fundamental Misalignment
   : The current price-to-book ratio of 3.38 is higher than the industry average [1], but the mid-2025 loss expanded to RMB 27.62 million, with a net profit margin of -2.48% and ROE of -2.28% [1][2], so the valuation lacks fundamental support.

• Risks
  : Sustained financial losses, overvaluation, high stock price volatility, short-term selling pressure from institutional sell-offs [1][2].
• Opportunities
  : Increased attention from mainland investors brought by the Stock Connect; if the company can turn profitable in the future, it may bring valuation repair opportunities [0].

As a hot Hong Kong stock, Baize Medical (02609.HK)'s price fluctuations are mainly driven by liquidity and speculative factors, not fundamental support. The current stock price is close to the 52-week low of HK$4.20; it is necessary to monitor whether this support level is effective. Investors should fully consider risks such as financial losses, overvaluation, and high volatility, and make decisions cautiously.