November CPI Preview Analysis: Moderating Inflation Expectations Amid Delayed BLS Report

This analysis is based on a Seeking Alpha article [1] published December 15, 2025, previewing the U.S. November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Critical context from external sources [2][3][4] reveals the actual CPI report was delayed to December 18, 2025, due to a government shutdown that disrupted October data collection; the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) warned the report would exclude certain one-month percent changes where October data is missing [2].

The article claims alternative inflation data suggests moderating inflation, with bond markets pricing a “goldilocks” scenario (moderate inflation consistent with Fed views) [1]. In the lead-up to the preview, major U.S. indices showed mixed performance: S&P 500 down 0.86% and Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.58% from December 10-12 [0]. On December 15, sector performance was mixed, with Basic Materials leading (1.59954%) and Utilities lagging (-5.06823%) [0]. A recent Fed action – a 25bps rate cut to 3.50-3.75% on December 10 – noted inflation remains “somewhat elevated” [4], aligning with economist expectations of flat 3.0% annual and core inflation in November [3].

1. Data Reliability Risks
   : The shutdown-induced delay and missing October data create significant limitations in the upcoming CPI report, potentially reducing its predictive value for Fed policy and market sentiment [2].
2. Pre-Data Fed Action
   : The Fed’s rate cut prior to the official CPI release (a deviation from typical practice of waiting for CPI data) signals a shift toward proactive policy or reliance on alternative inflation metrics, introducing policy uncertainty [4].
3. Market Sentiment Dichotomy
   : While the bond market prices a goldilocks scenario [1], the mixed pre-preview index performance [0] and economist expectations of stable 3.0% inflation [3] suggest cautious investor sentiment amid data ambiguity.

• Data Interpretation Volatility
  : Missing October data could lead to noisy CPI report interpretation, triggering sharp market movements, especially amid thin year-end liquidity [2][3].
• Fed Policy Reversal
  : If official CPI shows stickier inflation than expected, the Fed may reverse its December rate cut, creating policy uncertainty [4].
• Preview vs. Official Data Discrepancy
  : The Seeking Alpha preview’s alternative data could diverge from official BLS figures, causing market whipsaws when the report releases [1][2].

• Confirmed Moderation Upside
  : If the official CPI confirms moderating inflation, the goldilocks scenario could solidify, supporting equity and bond markets.
• Policy Clarity
  : A clear CPI reading (despite data gaps) could reduce Fed policy uncertainty, providing market stability into year-end.

This analysis synthesizes a Seeking Alpha November CPI preview, delay context due to a government shutdown, recent Fed action, and pre-preview market performance. Key points include:

• The November CPI report releases December 18, 2025, with missing October data [2][3].
• The preview claims moderating inflation via alternative data, with bonds pricing a goldilocks scenario [1].
• The Fed cut rates 25bps on December 10, noting elevated inflation [4].
• Economists expect flat 3.0% annual/core inflation for November [3].
• Market performance ahead of the preview was mixed, with sector divergences on December 15 [0].
• Data limitations and policy uncertainty pose volatility risks [2][3][4].