Analysis of December 2025 Double Jobs Release (Oct/Nov) and Market Implications

The Labor Department released October and November jobs data on December 16, 2025, following delays caused by a government shutdown [1]. October saw a decline of 105k jobs, while November recovered with 64k jobs added, driven primarily by the healthcare sector (46k jobs in November) [0]. Retail sales remained flat in October [0], and November’s unemployment rate rose [0]. In response to the data, rate futures markets increased the probability of a January Federal Reserve rate cut [0]. The Fed had already implemented three rate cuts in the latter part of 2025 [0]. Notable missing data points include the October unemployment rate, labor force participation data, exact November unemployment rate, and full sector job breakdowns beyond healthcare [0].

• Government shutdowns disrupted regular data reporting, creating uncertainty for market observers and policymakers [1].
• Weak labor market trends (October job losses, rising November unemployment) have influenced monetary policy expectations, with market participants pricing in potential further rate cuts [0].
• The healthcare sector remained a consistent source of job growth amid broader labor market volatility [0].

• Risks
  : The weak labor market raises concerns about reduced consumer spending and ongoing economic cooling [0]. Missing data introduces uncertainty into market and policy decisions [0].
• Opportunities
  : Potential January rate cuts could provide support to financial markets, though the timing and magnitude of policy action remain uncertain [0].

Key data points from the release include:

• October: 105k job losses, flat retail sales
• November: 64k job gains (healthcare +46k), rising unemployment rate
• Rate futures now price higher odds of a January Fed rate cut, following three prior cuts in late 2025. Data delays were due to a government shutdown.
  No prescriptive investment recommendations are provided.