Truist Raises Simon Property Group's Target Price to $181 and Analysis of Valuation Recovery in Retail REITs

Based on the data and analysis I have obtained, I will provide a detailed analysis of Truist’s raise of Simon Property Group’s target price to $181 and the logic behind the valuation recovery of retail REITs:

Simon Property Group’s current share price is $182.61 [0], which has exceeded Truist’s raised target price of $181. The stock has risen by 11.00% in the past 90 trading days, showing strong performance [0].

The company has shown strong financial performance:

• Net Profit Margin
  : 36.29% [0]
• Operating Profit Margin
  : 50.70% [0]
• ROE
  : 86.35% [0], indicating extremely high capital efficiency
• Current Ratio
  : 994.16 [0], with excellent liquidity
• Market Capitalization
  : $59.62 billion [0]

As can be seen from the chart, SPG’s share price showed a steady upward trend in the second half of 2025, rising from about $165 in June to over $182 in December.

: According to the latest analysis, Simon Property Group expects the occupancy rate of its U.S. shopping mall and outlet portfolio to reach 96.1% by the end of 2025 [1]. This high occupancy rate reflects a strong recovery in demand for retail real estate.

: Simon Property Group has adopted an omnichannel strategy, integrating physical retail with e-commerce [1]. This transformation has enhanced the competitiveness and value of shopping malls.

Although consumers remain price-sensitive, the physical retail experience is regaining favor. The experiential consumption, social functions, and instant gratification provided by shopping malls are irreplaceable by pure e-commerce.

Simon Property Group owns a portfolio of top-tier shopping malls and outlet assets, and these Class A properties are scarce in the market. With consumption upgrading, consumers are more inclined to choose high-quality shopping environments.

In an inflationary environment, high-quality retail real estate usually has good inflation resistance, and rental income can rise with inflation, providing investors with a guarantee of real returns.

The company’s EPS performance has continued to improve in recent quarters:

• November 2025: $3.22 [0]
• August 2025: $3.05 [0]
• May 2025: $2.95 [0]

This steady growth trend provides a solid foundation for valuation improvement.

According to financial analysis, the company shows a conservative accounting attitude, and the high depreciation/capital expenditure ratio indicates that there may still be room for improvement in current earnings [0].

Analysts’ overall rating for SPG is “Hold”, with a target price range of $169-$210 [0]. Truist raised the target price from $169 to $181, reflecting optimistic expectations for the company’s prospects.

Despite the positive outlook, the following risks need to be noted:

1. Debt Risk
   : Financial analysis shows that the company’s debt risk is classified as “High Risk” [0]
2. Fluctuations in Consumer Spending
   : Consumers remain cautious, and their spending behavior is easily affected by the economic environment
3. E-commerce Competition
   : Despite the omnichannel strategy, it still faces continuous competitive pressure from pure e-commerce

Truist’s raise of Simon Property Group’s target price to $181 reflects multiple logics behind the valuation recovery of retail REITs: improved fundamentals, return of consumer behavior to physical retail, scarcity of high-quality assets, and hedge against inflation in an inflationary environment. The current share price of $182.61 is slightly higher than the new target price, but considering the company’s strong financial performance and expected occupancy rate of 96.1%, there is still room for further growth.

The valuation recovery of retail REITs is steadily rising from the post-pandemic bottom, mainly due to the successful transformation of the industry and the value re-rating of high-quality assets.

[0] Gilin API Data
[1] Yahoo Finance - “Here’s Why it Is Wise to Retain SPG Stock in Your Portfolio…” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-why-wise-retain-spg-155100593.html)