Analysis of Driving Factors and Sustainability of the Limit-Up Surge in the A-Share Robot Sector

This analysis is based on market events as of December 27, 2025. The A-share robot sector experienced a limit-up surge from December 24 to 25, with more than ten individual stocks hitting their daily limit [1][2]. Specific performances include:

• Morning Session of December 25
  : Julun Intelligent, Taier Shares, Fenglong Shares, Tianqi Shares, Wanxiang Qianchao, etc., sealed their daily limit; Tuosida and Haozhi Electromechanical once rose by over 18% [2][13]
• ETF Performance
  : The Robot ETF once surged by nearly 2%, with a net inflow of 8.212 billion yuan this year and a latest scale of 9.8 billion yuan [5][6]
• Leading Stocks
  :
  • Inovance Technology (300607.SZ): Hit the daily limit (+9.98%) on December 25, with a turnover of 5.205 billion yuan [0]
  • Estun (002796.SZ): Rose sharply by +7.66% on December 24, with a trading volume of 543,300 lots [0]

---

is the most direct catalyst for this limit-up surge [13]:

• Transaction Details
  : On December 24, UBtech Technology, the “first humanoid robot stock” listed in Hong Kong, announced its plan to acquire a 43% stake in Fenglong Shares through a combination of “agreement transfer + tender offer”.
• Transaction Scale
  : The share transfer price is 17.72 yuan per share, with a total consideration of
  1.665 billion yuan
  [13].
• Business Logic
  :
  • UBtech: R&D, design, manufacturing, and commercialization of humanoid robots.
  • Fenglong Shares: A specialized and sophisticated enterprise deeply engaged in garden machinery, engines, hydraulic control systems, and auto parts, with precision manufacturing capabilities and a mature supply chain system.
  • Synergies: UBtech’s technological advantages + Fenglong Shares’ manufacturing and supply chain capabilities to promote industrialization [13].

This is a rare major capital operation case in the humanoid robot field, marking the industry’s accelerated transition from the R&D phase to industrialization.

:

• Tesla Optimus
  : On December 3, Musk posted a video on social media showing that the humanoid robot has achieved smooth running functionality [6][13].
• Mass Production Plan
  : Musk expects to be ready for production prototypes from February to March 2026, with a plan of “mass production in 2026 and a price below $20,000” [13].

:

• Zhiyuan Robot
  : On December 8, it announced the mass production and delivery of its 5000th general-purpose embodied robot (the 1000th unit rolled off the line in early 2025) [3].
• Unitree Technology
  : Its humanoid robot danced at Wang Leehom’s concert, and Musk praised it as “impressive”; IPO counseling has been completed, one step away from becoming the “first humanoid robot stock on the A-share market” [5][6].
• UBtech
  : Has accumulated nearly 1.4 billion yuan in humanoid robot orders this year, and expects to increase its industrial humanoid robot production capacity to 10,000 units in 2026 [13].
• Industry-wide Orders
  : The total number of humanoid robot orders (including intentions) across the industry this year has exceeded
  30,000 units
  [6].

:

• Motion control: From preset trajectories to dynamic adaptation.
• Deep integration of embodied intelligence, with autonomous decision-making capabilities based on environmental perception.
• VLA (Vision-Language-Action) models enable robots to “see, understand, and act” [3].

:

• 《“Robot +” Application Action Implementation Plan》: Proposes that the density of manufacturing robots by 2025 will double compared to 2020 [7][8].
• 《Guidelines for the Innovative Development of Humanoid Robots》: Proposes that the industry will accelerate large-scale development by 2027 [7].

:

• Shandong Province
  : 《Robot Industry High-Quality Development Action Plan (2025-2027)》 proposes that the industry scale will exceed 50 billion yuan by 2027 [7].
• Shanghai
  : Collects 《2025 Annual Intelligent Robot Benchmark Enterprises and Application Scenarios Recommendation Catalog》 to strengthen policy support [7].
• Beijing
  : Accelerates the layout of humanoid robots, driving the leapfrog development of four types of robot products: medical and health, collaboration, special-purpose, and logistics [7].

:

• Unitree Technology completed IPO counseling.
• Leju, Zhiyuan, and others have intensively launched capitalization actions such as IPOs and M&A listings [6].
• This marks the industry’s transition from the “R&D investment phase” to the “large-scale implementation phase” [6].

:

• The Robot ETF has received net subscriptions for 7 consecutive days, with a total net inflow of 300 million yuan and a net inflow of 8.212 billion yuan this year [5][6].
• After three months of deep correction, multiple valuation indicators are at historical lows, with sufficient safety margins [6].
• Public fund holdings have dropped to 2.1%, a historical low, while allocation funds remain stable [6].

According to the Jinling Analysis Database [0]:

:

• The cumulative shipment volume of industrial robots in the first half of 2025 exceeded 163,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 16%.- Estun: In the first half of 2025, its industrial robot shipment volume surpassed foreign brands for the first time, becoming the top domestic brand in the Chinese industrial robot market with a market share of 10.5%.- Inovance Technology: Its industrial robot products have a market share of about 8.8% in China, ranking third; its SCARA robot market share is 27.3%, ranking first.

:

• Estun: In the first half of 2025, revenue was 2.548 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%; it turned a profit from a loss (loss of 73.41 million yuan in the same period last year).
• Inovance Technology: In the first half of 2025, revenue was 20.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.73%; net profit was 2.968 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.15%.

---

:

• The trend of humanoid robots moving from “laboratories” to “commercialization” is clear [3][6].
• 2025 is called the first year of mass production of humanoid robots by the industry [5].
• 2026 is a critical year for mass production
  : Tesla, Zhiyuan, Unitree, etc., all have clear mass production plans [6][13].

:

• National and local policies continue to intensify; the central fiscal discount support for the equipment renewal action plan has been extended to 2027.
• The specialized and sophisticated enterprise cultivation plan focuses on robot component enterprises [6].

:

• The industrial robot market is recovering, and the share of domestic brands is increasing.
• Leading enterprises’ performance is improving (Estun turned profitable, Inovance Technology achieved high growth) [9].

:

• Continuous net inflow of ETF funds indicates that institutional funds are optimistic about medium-to-long-term opportunities.
• Valuations are at historical lows with sufficient safety margins [6].

:

• Currently, humanoid robots are still in the critical stage of transitioning from laboratory technological breakthroughs to industrial applications [3].
• 2026 is a critical year for industrialization, requiring the identification of replicable and large-scale刚需 (rigid demand) scenarios.
• Cost remains a key factor restricting large-scale applications.

:

• There are more than 100 humanoid robot整机 (complete machine) manufacturers in China, with extremely fierce competition [3].
• The National Development and Reform Commission also pointed out the need to guard against the risk of “crowding” and emphasized that “the key lies in reasonable guidance” [3].

:

• After a deep correction at the beginning of the year, some individual stocks still have high valuations.
• Short-term driven by sentiment and themes, with large volatility.
• Market participants suggest that “it is not recommended to chase the hot sectors on the day; attention should be paid to the next-day performance of hot stocks” [6].

:

• Currently, it is mainly based on expectations and theme investment; actual performance realization still takes time.
• Institutions believe that the sector is expected to shift from “theme speculation” to the pursuit of “order-performance elasticity” [6].

:

• Clear industrialization trend, entering the mass production period in 2026 [6].
• Continuous policy support and gradually improving fundamentals [7][9].
• Continuous technological progress and expanding application scenarios.

:

• Facing profit-taking pressure after large gains.
• Uncertainties in technological breakthroughs and commercialization progress.
• Intensified market competition and inevitable differentiation.

:

• Short-Term (1-3 months)
  : Focus on event catalysts and sentiment repair, with large volatility.
• Medium-Term (2026)
  : Focus on mass production progress and order fulfillment, which is a verification period [6].
• Long-Term (2-3 years)
  : If technological breakthroughs and commercialization are successful, it is expected to usher in a real industrial explosion.

---

According to Xinhua News Agency reports [3], the humanoid robot industry has reached three critical “transformation” junctures:

1. Transformation from technological breakthroughs to application scenario implementation
   : Need to find replicable and large-scale rigid demand scenarios.
2. Transformation from laboratories to factory mass production
   : 2026 is a critical year for mass production.
3. Transformation from policy-driven to market-oriented competition
   : Industry competition intensifies, and differentiation is inevitable.

Meng Pengfei, chief mechanical analyst at Kaiyuan Securities, pointed out [6]:

“Core driving factors have brought the sector’s adjustment to an end, with sufficient risk release, more rational and consistent industry expectations; at the same time, overseas Tesla and domestic industrial progress continue to accelerate, with many strong catalysts in the future. Looking ahead to 2026, humanoid robots will enter the mass production period, major manufacturers will participate in the industry, policy support and subsidies are expected to enter the implementation phase, and the layout window of ‘strengthening trend and upward prosperity’ has already opened.”

:

1. Mainframe leaders with first-mover advantages
   : Have formed moats in order acquisition and brand effects.
2. Key component enterprises that have entered the supply chain of core mainframe manufacturers
   : Benefit from the industry’s large-scale implementation.

:

• The market size of humanoid robots in China was about 2.76 billion yuan in 2024 [7].
• It is expected to reach 870 billion yuan by 2030 (CAGR = 93.6%) [7].
• MIIT’s goal: To become an important new engine for economic growth by 2027 [7].

:

• China Academy of Information and Communications Technology predicts: In the future, only the domestic demand for humanoid robots will exceed 100 million units, and the complete machine market size can reach 10 trillion yuan [6].
• Oriental Securities expects the initial industrial application market size of humanoid robots to exceed 1 million units [3].

Note: These are long-term forecast data with high uncertainty and should not be used as a basis for short-term investment.

---

(High Risk):

• The robot sector is easily driven by sentiment and themes, with large short-term volatility.
• Some individual stocks have high valuations, and performance realization takes time.
• Need to be vigilant against correction risks after short-term sharp rises.

(Medium Risk):

• The technological route of humanoid robots has not yet been fully finalized, with the risk of technological iteration.
• Commercialization scenarios need further verification.

(Medium Risk):

• The industry is highly competitive, with more than 100 humanoid robot complete machine manufacturers [3].
• Differentiation is inevitable in the future; attention should be paid to enterprises’ core competitiveness.

(2026-2027):

• 2026 is a critical year for mass production, expected to see performance realization.
• Focus on enterprises with clear mass production plans and order fulfillment capabilities.

(2025-2027):

• The central fiscal discount support for the equipment renewal action plan has been extended to 2027.
• The specialized and sophisticated enterprise cultivation plan focuses on robot component enterprises.

:

• After deep correction, the sector’s valuation is at historical lows.
• Continuous net inflow of ETF funds indicates that institutional funds are optimistic about medium-to-long-term opportunities.

---

(Sorted by Importance):

Driving Factor	Details	Verification Status
1. Major M&A	UBtech’s acquisition of 43% stake in Fenglong Shares for 1.665 billion yuan	✅ Verified [13]
2. Technological Breakthrough	Tesla Optimus’ running capability, accelerated mass production of domestic robots	✅ Verified [3][6]
3. Policy Support	Continuous intensification of national and local policies	✅ Verified [7][8]
4. Industrialization Progress	Over 30,000 orders, accelerated IPOs of leading enterprises	✅ Verified [3][6]
5. Improved Capital Flow	Continuous net inflow of ETF funds, valuations at historical lows	✅ Verified [5][6]

:

• ✅
  Positive Medium-to-Long-Term Trend
  : Clear industrialization trend, entering the mass production period in 2026, continuous policy support, and continuous technological progress.
• ⚠️
  Short-Term Volatility Inevitable
  : Facing profit-taking after large gains, performance realization takes time; need to focus on 2026 mass production progress and order fulfillment.

:

• December 2025
  : UBtech’s acquisition of Fenglong Shares (direct catalyst).
• Q1-Q2 2026
  : Tesla Optimus production prototype preparation period.
• 2026 Full Year
  : Critical year for mass production of domestic humanoid robots.
• 2027
  : Policy target achievement period.

:

1. Mainframe leaders with first-mover advantages.
2. Key component enterprises that have entered the supply chain of core mainframe manufacturers.
3. Companies with strong performance realization capabilities and reasonable valuations.

:

1. It is not recommended to chase the hot sectors on the day.
2. Pay attention to the next-day performance of hot stocks.
3. Be vigilant against theme speculation and valuation risks.
4. Focus on performance realization progress.

---