Investment Impact Analysis: Hunters Moon Capital Holds 1.59% Stake in PTSB

Based on current market data and latest information, I conduct a detailed analysis of the investment impact of Hunters Moon Capital’s disclosure of holding a 1.59% stake in Permanent TSB Group Holdings plc (PTSB).

• Founding Time
  : Newly launched hedge fund in February 2025
• Founders
  : Johnny de la Hey and Hugh Rance (both from Toscafund; de la Hey previously worked at Tiger Management) [1]
• Headquarters
  : London, 13-person professional team
• Investment Strategy
  : Focus on long-short strategies for global financial stocks, with special focus on European and UK markets
• Funding Background
  : Supported by internal capital, U.S. family offices and institutional investors

According to latest market data [0]:

• Current Stock Price
  : €2.83 (closing price on December 31, 2025; down 4.07% that day)
• 52-Week Range
  : €1.33-€3.34
• Market Capitalization
  : $1.54 billion
• Price-to-Earnings Ratio
  : 21.77
• Goodbody Target Price
  : €4.23 (423c)

: Validate ongoing acquisition process

Hunters Moon Capital’s increase in holdings follows Sretaw PE’s continuous增持 (Sretaw holds over 7% stake and further increased by 250,000 shares on December 15) [2]. This accumulation pattern by institutional investors indicates:

• High confidence from savvy investors in acquisition completion
• Expectation of competitive acquisition process (multiple interested acquirers)
• Potential acquisition premium above current trading level

: PTSB expects to request formal expressions of acquisition intent in January 2025, which is a near-term catalyst [2].

:

Indicator	Price	Relative to Current Level
Current Price	€2.83	-
Reported Bid by Bawag	€3.06 (306c)	+8.1%
Government Break-Even Price	€3.91 (391c)	+38.2%
Goodbody Target Price	€4.23 (423c)	+49.5%

:

• Autonomous Research estimates Bawag’s acquisition of PTSB for €1.7 billion (€3.06 per share) could generate a 25.5% ROI by FY2028 [2]
• Significant gap between current trading level and reported bids/analyst targets suggests possible competitive acquisition war
• Strong interest from private equity firms increases bidding likelihood

:

Given their expertise in European financial stocks and long-short strategies, this holding may reflect:

• In-depth due diligence on banking consolidation opportunities
• Assessment of operational improvement potential under new ownership
• Views on capital efficiency and excess capital extraction opportunities
• Evaluation of PTSB’s competitive position in Irish banking market

:

Successful acquisition of PTSB will mean:

• For AIB and Bank of Ireland
  : Increased competitive pressure from a more efficient, capital-adequate PTSB under new ownership
• For Competition
  : New owners may invest in technology and AI capabilities (existing banks are “far behind” UK major banks in this area) [2]
• For Market Dynamics
  : Reduced market consolidation, but transformed PTSB may bring more intense competition

:

• Bank Buyers
  : Bawag (Austrian bank), Bankinter (Spain)
• Private Equity
  : Centerbridge, Lone Star, Sretaw PE (already holds >7% stake)

:

• PE buyers may have greater flexibility in extracting synergies and improving operational efficiency
• Bank buyers (e.g., Bawag) can leverage existing banking infrastructure and expertise
• Presence of multiple buyer types increases likelihood of competitive bidding

:

1. Transaction Completion Risk
   : Despite positive signals, no guarantee of acquisition success
2. Political/Regulatory Considerations
   : Irish government’s break-even price (€3.91) is significantly higher than reported bids
3. Market Volatility
   : Recent 4% daily drop shows stock price sensitivity
4. Time Risk
   : Extended process may lead to uncertainty and price fluctuations

:

• Increased holdings by multiple institutional investors indicate professional risk assessment
• Analyst support (Goodbody’s 423c target price) provides valuation floor perspective
• Clear catalyst timeline (January acquisition deadline)

• Hold
  : Increased holdings by savvy investors (Hunters Moon, Sretaw) indicate upside potential remains
• Monitor
  : Follow January’s expression of acquisition intent and any competitive offers
• Risk Management
  : Be mindful of position size given transaction completion risk

• Cautious Approach
  : Entering after recent 4% drop may be opportunistic, but requires ability to bear transaction risks
• Catalyst-Driven
  : Investment thesis is tied to acquisition process, not fundamental operations
• Consider Alternatives
  : Other participants in Irish banking consolidation may offer different risk/reward profiles

• Signal Significance
  : Hedge fund participation validates acquisition thesis and may attract additional institutional interest
• Industry Impact
  : Outcome may set precedent for further private equity transactions in European banking
• Competitive Dynamics
  : Outcome will shape competitive landscape of Irish retail banking

Hunters Moon Capital’s disclosure of holding a 1.59% stake in Permanent TSB is a meaningful vote of confidence in the ongoing acquisition process. From a professional financial stock hedge fund founded by industry veterans, this investment indicates savvy investors see value above current trading levels.

Convergence of multiple positive signals—increased holdings by multiple institutional investors, reported acquisition interest, analyst targets significantly above current levels—creates a compelling (though not risk-free) upside opportunity. However, investors should note transaction completion risk, political considerations of government break-even price, and volatility during acquisition process.

The timeline for formal expressions of acquisition intent in January provides a clear near-term catalyst, making it an attractive event-driven opportunity for investors who can bear associated risks.

[1] Thematic Investors - “Hunters Moon Capital on Investing Across Europe” (Podcast, April 2025) - https://thematicinvestors.blubrry.net/2025/04/29/thematic-investors-hunters-moon-capital-on-investing-across-europe/

[2] Financials Unshackled - “Weekly Briefing of 21st Dec 2025 (Irish Banking)” - https://www.financialsunshackled.com/p/financials-unshackled-weekly-briefing-d36

[3] Irish Times - “PTSB on track to press for firm expressions of bid interest in January” (Dec 22, 2025) - https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2025/12/22/ptsb-on-track-to-press-for-firm-expressions-of-bid-interest-in-january/

[4] LinkedIn - Peter Oakes’ Post on Bawag/PTSB Analysis - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/peteroakes_𝕎𝕙𝕒𝕥-𝕀𝕤-𝕀𝕣-𝕚𝕤𝕙-𝕓𝕒𝕟𝕜𝕚𝕟𝕘-activity-7408462520170246144-rmP8

[5] Investing.com - “Goldman Sachs discloses dealings in Permanent TSB shares” (Dec 22, 2025) - https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/goldman-sachs-discloses-dealings-in-permanent-tsb-shares-93CH-4419003

[6] Jinling API Data (Permanent TSB real-time quotes and financial data)