Hot Analysis of Haige Communications (002465.SZ): Trapped Hot Money and Expected Losses Trigger Sharp Market Volatility

Haige Communications (002465.SZ) has recently made it to the hot list, with a significant rise in market attention, behind which there are three core driving factors [1][2][3][4]:

The stock has experienced severe price fluctuations: from December 29, 2025, to January 14, 2026, the stock price rose by a cumulative

over 11 trading days [5]. However, from January 15 to 19, it saw three consecutive limit-downs, with a cumulative deviation of the closing price decline exceeding 20%, triggering an abnormal volatility announcement [2]. On January 20, the limit-down was finally lifted; the stock opened 4.12% lower and saw heavy trading, with a full-day turnover of RMB 976 million and a turnover rate of 2.12% [1].

Well-known market hot money investor “Chen Xiaoqun” (Dalian Huanghe Road) is trapped with approximately

in Haige Communications [1]. Specifically, he net bought RMB 329.5 million in the three-day ranking on January 13, and net bought RMB 161.5 million in the single-day ranking on January 14. Over four trading days, he bought a total of RMB 615 million and sold RMB 123 million, with a net purchase of approximately RMB 491 million. The incident of trapped hot money itself has become a market hot topic, sparking extensive discussions on platforms such as Weibo, Xueqiu, and stock bar forums.

After market close on January 14, the company released a performance pre-announcement of losses [3][4], expecting a negative net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company for 2025. This will be Haige Communications’

, mainly due to adjustments by industry clients and cyclical fluctuations, as well as continued increased investment in innovative businesses. The company had already reported a loss of RMB 175 million in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 194.73% [0].

Observing price performance from multiple dimensions: a single-day drop of 6.70%, a 5-day drop of 24.46%, but a 1-month gain of still 37.85%, a 3-month gain of 54.44%, a 6-month gain of 39.02%, a 1-year gain of 70.11%, and a 3-year gain of 108.53% [0]. The current price of RMB 18.10 has dropped 32% from the 52-week high of RMB 26.62, and is between the 50-day moving average (RMB 14.71) and the 20-day moving average (RMB 18.29) [0].

Key price ranges show: strong support at RMB 17.35, short-term resistance at RMB 18.85, deep adjustment target at RMB 16.50, and the historical high of RMB 26.62 as a strong resistance level.

On January 20, trading volume reached 7.4837 million shares,

the average daily trading volume of 0.8874 million shares [1]. In terms of capital flows, main capital had a net outflow of RMB 291 million (accounting for 39.74% of turnover), while retail capital had a net inflow of RMB 169 million [2], showing a typical pattern of “main capital exiting, retail investors taking over”. The institutional target average price is RMB 13.35, representing a downside of approximately 35% from the current share price [0].

Haige Communications focuses on four business segments [0][7]: Wireless Communications (core supplier of military wireless communication equipment), Beidou Navigation (full industrial chain layout of chips, modules, and antennas), Aerospace (contractor for Jiutian UAVs, satellite communication payloads), and Digital Intelligence Ecosystem (vehicle-road-cloud integration, intelligent transportation).

The company has several popular concepts: Satellite Internet (deep participation in the Tiantong Satellite Communication System and national satellite internet projects), Low-Altitude Economy (applications of direct satellite connection for mobile phones and cars), Military Electronics (mainstream supplier of ground terminals for special institutional markets), and Beidou Navigation (high-precision positioning, anti-jamming antennas, etc.) [7]. These concepts all fall under national strategic development directions and have long-term growth potential.

Fundamentals are under obvious pressure: in the first three quarters of 2025, operating revenue was RMB 3.158 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.17%; net profit was -RMB 175 million, a year-on-year decrease of 194.73%; gross margin was 23.99%, with declining profitability; ROE was -2.47%, showing negative returns to shareholders [0]. The price-to-sales ratio of 10.42 times indicates that the current valuation lacks performance support.

The MACD indicator shows a

, sending a bearish signal; in the KDJ indicator, K is 37.1, D is 61.8, J is -12.3, showing an overall bearish trend; the RSI indicator is in the normal range [0]. In terms of technical patterns, after hitting a high of RMB 21.96 on January 9, the stock fell rapidly, forming a “false breakout” pattern, accompanied by volume-price divergence (volume surged in the late stage of the rally but price stagnated), and the MACD death cross further confirmed the downward trend [8].

The current pattern is sideways consolidation, with no clear directional choice. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the support level of RMB 17.35 is effectively broken, and whether the resistance level of RMB 18.85 can form effective resistance.

: The expected first annual loss in 2025 has put pressure on fundamentals, and more negative news may emerge before the annual report is released on March 28 [3][4]. : The current valuation is severely disconnected from fundamentals, and the institutional target price is only RMB 13.35, leaving significant downside space. : Main capital continues to flow out, and trapped hot money may trigger a chain reaction. : Large sell orders during limit-downs have frozen liquidity. In addition, the commercial aerospace/military electronics sector has pulled back overall, with capital rotating from high-level theme stocks to low-level stocks [6].

: Beidou Navigation, Satellite Internet, and Low-Altitude Economy all fall under national strategic directions, with policy support advantages. : The short-term decline is significant, and a technical rebound may occur at any time. : Chen Xiaoqun may seek opportunities for a self-rescue rebound.

The core logic behind Haige Communications becoming a hot stock is the combined effect of

. The company’s business aligns with national strategic development directions, but in the short term, it faces multiple pressures such as performance losses, valuation regression, and capital outflows.

: Extremely high risk, a typical capital game market, not recommended to chase gains or sell on dips. : Signals of performance improvement, landing of military orders, and progress of Beidou Navigation policies. : It is necessary to wait for a fundamental inflection point, and only consider layout after performance stabilizes.

: RMB 17.35 (short-term support, observe whether it is effectively broken), RMB 18.85 (short-term resistance, opportunity to reduce positions on rebound), RMB 20.50 (dense chip area, strong resistance level), RMB 21.96 (previous high, a breakout with volume is needed to confirm trend reversal) [0].

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[0] Jinling Analysis Database - Haige Communications Company Profile and Financial Data

[1] Caiwen News - RMB 129 Million Ambush in Haige Communications in Call Auction (https://www.caiwennews.com/article/1414067.shtml)

[2] CNfol.com - Haige Communications Saw Net Outflow of RMB 291 Million from Main Capital on January 19 (http://sc.stock.cnfol.com/gushiyaowen/20260120/31955683.shtml)

[3] Securities Times - Haige Communications Expects Operating Losses for 2025 (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3592923.html)

[4] Eastmoney - Haige Communications’ Cumulative Deviation of Closing Price Decline Exceeded 20% in 3 Consecutive Trading Days (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601193623424479.html)

[5] Sina Finance - Haige Communications Hit 3 Consecutive Limit-Downs (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockzmt/2026-01-19/doc-inhhwavr6738236.shtml)

[6] Eastmoney - Review of the Top 10 Popular Stocks on January 19 (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20260119220022567654900)

[7] Securities Times - Haige Communications Business Q&A (https://www.stcn.com/quotes/index/sz002465.html)

[8] Eastmoney - Technical Analysis of Haige Communications (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20260112080845964661020)