Analysis of the Impact of the UK's Social Media Ban for Children on User Growth and Advertising Revenue of Meta and Snap Platforms

The UK government issued a statement on January 19, 2025, launching a public consultation on the issue of children’s use of social media. Proposed measures include restricting addictive features (such as “streak” mechanisms and infinite scroll functions), prohibiting children under the age of 16 from using social media, and strengthening age verification [1][2][3]. This policy references the world’s first child social media ban implemented by Australia in December 2025, where approximately 4.7 million accounts for those under 16 were restricted or removed by platforms within the first month after implementation [4][5]. The UK government will respond to this consultation in summer and plans to hold events across the country to listen to parents’ opinions and discuss the impact of technology on children’s well-being.

Meta, as one of the world’s largest social media companies, achieved total revenue of $164.5 billion in fiscal year 2024, with advertising revenue reaching $160.6 billion, accounting for as high as 97.6% of total revenue [0]. From a geographic perspective, the European market contributed approximately $37.17 billion in revenue, accounting for 22.6% of total revenue [0]. According to research from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Meta’s platforms generated approximately $1.17 billion in advertising revenue from users under 18 in the US, of which Instagram generated $4 billion in advertising revenue from the 13-17 age group and approximately $800 million from users under 12 [6]. Most crucially, Instagram contributes the vast majority of Meta’s advertising revenue from teens, with extremely significant penetration and influence in the US teen user market.

Snap, a social platform with a core user base of young people, has a business structure that is more dependent on teen users. In fiscal year 2024, Snap’s total revenue reached $5.36 billion, with advertising revenue accounting for 87.4% [0]. The European market contributed approximately $1.02 billion, accounting for 19% of total revenue [0]. According to Harvard’s research, Snap derives the highest proportion of its advertising revenue from users under 18, which accounts for 41% of its total advertising revenue, meaning that if the ban is implemented, Snap will face the most direct revenue impact [6]. Snapchat’s Daily Active Users (DAU) in Europe maintained a 4% year-over-year growth, with outstanding user stickiness and engagement among young user groups [0]. This business model highly dependent on young users makes Snap particularly vulnerable to regulatory policies.

As the first country in the world to implement a comprehensive child social media ban, Australia’s policy implementation effects have important reference value for the UK. As of January 2026, the Australian government reported that within the first month after the ban was implemented, 10 major social media platforms restricted approximately 4.7 million accounts for those under 16 [4][5]. Affected platforms include Twitch, Kick, YouTube, Threads, Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, X, TikTok and Reddit. Australian Prime Minister Albanese stated that this data indicates that the policy is “working”. However, critics point out that children may circumvent the ban through VPNs or other means, or migrate to unregulated platforms.

Based on the Australian case and the UK policy framework, it is expected that Meta and Snap will face significant churn of users under 16 after the implementation of the UK ban. Using the data of 4.7 million restricted accounts in Australia as a reference, considering that the UK population is approximately 2.5 times that of Australia, it is estimated that over 10 million potential user accounts will be affected. For Snap, whose core user base is young people, the loss of users under 16 will directly impact its DAU base and user growth curve. Although Meta has a larger user base, its Instagram and Facebook platforms also have a large number of minor users, especially in the 13-17 age group.

The age verification requirements brought by regulatory policies will increase platforms’ technical compliance costs, and may also affect the user experience of some adult users. According to the 10-K filings of Meta and Snap, both companies list “user growth and engagement” as core business risk factors [0]. WPP’s 2025 Global Advertising Forecast points out that the growth rate of social platform advertising revenue will slow from 12.8% in 2025 to 7.8% in 2026, with one important factor being the “upcoming age-related bans” [7]. This indicates that the industry generally expects regulatory policies to have a substantive impact on user growth.

According to Harvard’s research data, social media platforms generate approximately $11 billion in annual advertising revenue from users under 18 in the US [6]. Although the absolute size of the UK market is smaller than that of the US, the UK is an important revenue source for Meta and Snap. Meta’s advertising revenue in Europe (including the UK) is approximately $37.17 billion, while Snap’s advertising revenue in Europe is approximately $1.02 billion. Assuming that users under 16 in the UK contribute 5%-10% of their European business revenue (estimated based on population structure and user penetration rate), Meta may face a direct advertising revenue loss of approximately $1.86 billion to $3.72 billion in the UK market, while Snap may face a loss of approximately $50 million to $100 million.

In addition to direct revenue losses, the ban may also bring the following indirect impacts. First, reduced user engagement: when young users are forced to leave the platform, their social network effects will weaken, which may lead to a decline in the activity of some adult users. Second, reduced advertising efficiency: although young users account for a relatively low proportion of advertising contributions, their high engagement and content consumption duration make them an important channel for brands to reach young consumer groups. Third, increased compliance costs: platforms need to invest significant resources in the development of age verification technology and the construction of compliance systems, which will increase operating costs. WARC’s Global Advertising Forecast shows that global social media advertising spending is expected to grow by 14.9% to $306.4 billion in 2025, accounting for 26.2% of global total advertising spending, of which Meta is expected to capture 60% of the social advertising market share [8]. Age restriction policies may change this competitive landscape.

Ofcom, the law enforcement agency of the UK’s Online Safety Act, has been granted strong regulatory powers. According to the Act, non-compliant platforms may face fines of up to £18 million or 10% of global qualifying revenue, whichever is higher [9][10]. In serious cases, Ofcom may seek court orders to implement “business disruption measures”, including requiring payment providers and advertisers to withdraw services, or requiring internet service providers to block platform services. Since 2025, Ofcom has launched 5 enforcement programs and initiated 21 investigations [11]. In July 2025, Ofcom imposed a fine of £20,000 on 4Chan plus daily continuous fines, and in November, it imposed a fine of £50,000 on a platform that failed to use age checks to protect children.

To meet UK regulatory requirements, Meta and Snap need to invest significant resources in the development and deployment of age verification systems. According to PwC’s analysis, the deadline for illegal content risk assessment is March 16, 2025, and platforms need to comply using Ofcom’s illegal content operating specifications, risk assessment guidelines and risk profiles [9]. These compliance requirements not only involve technology development costs, but also include legal consulting, internal process transformation and continuous monitoring costs. For social media platforms that rely on advertising revenue, regulatory compliance will become an important operating expense.

The degree of impact of the ban varies significantly among different platforms. Snap is the most severely affected, as 41% of its advertising revenue comes from users under 18, far higher than other platforms [6]. Although Meta is larger in scale, its revenue sources are more diversified, and the adult user bases of Instagram and Facebook are more stable. TikTok was also significantly affected by Australia’s ban, but its global growth momentum may offset regional policy risks to a certain extent. WPP’s forecast shows that TikTok’s advertising revenue growth is expected to reach 26% in 2025, leading among social media platforms [7].

With the implementation of regulatory policies, advertisers may adjust their social media placement strategies. Some brands may reduce advertising placement on platforms with concentrated young users and shift to other digital channels or traditional media. At the same time, advertisers will put forward higher requirements for platforms’ user age verification capabilities and compliance levels, which may change the advertising competition pattern among platforms. Data from Sprout Social shows that global social media advertising spending is expected to reach $276.7 billion in 2025, with 83% of advertising spending generated through mobile terminals [12].

Based on the above analysis, the impacts of the UK’s child social media ban on Meta and Snap can be summarized into the following risk factors: risk of slowed or negative user growth, especially among young user groups; risk of direct advertising revenue loss, estimated to account for 3%-7% of European business revenue; risk of increased compliance costs, including technology development, legal consulting and operating costs; risk of regulatory penalties, up to 10% of global revenue; and risk of changes in competitive landscape, which may lead to redistribution of advertising market share.

From a valuation perspective, Meta’s current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is 26.67 times, while Snap, due to continuous losses, has a P/E ratio of -25.73 times [0]. The consensus target price of analysts for Meta is $825, representing a 33% upside from the current price; the consensus target price for Snap is $8.50, representing a 12.9% upside from the current price [0]. The implementation progress of regulatory policies will be an important factor affecting the stock performance of the two companies in 2026. Investors should closely monitor the UK government’s consultation response, Ofcom’s law enforcement dynamics, and the compliance progress of each platform.

The UK’s regulatory policy on social media ban for children will have multi-dimensional substantive impacts on social media platforms such as Meta and Snap. Based on reference data from Australia’s ban, it is expected that over 10 million user accounts for those under 16 will be affected after the implementation of the UK policy. In terms of advertising revenue, Meta may face potential losses of approximately $1.86 billion to $3.72 billion in the UK market, while Snap may face losses of approximately $50 million to $100 million. Snap faces greater risk exposure due to its high dependence on young users. From a regulatory perspective, Ofcom has shown active law enforcement willingness, and the compliance costs and penalty risks faced by platforms cannot be ignored. When evaluating the investment value of social media companies, investors should incorporate regulatory policy risks into the core analysis framework, focusing on the progress of user structure optimization and compliance capability building of each platform.

[1] Silicon Republic - “UK government considering social media ban for under-16s” (https://www.siliconrepublic.com/business/uk-government-social-media-ban-danger-online-safety-policy)

[2] Al Jazeera - “UK to consider Australia-style ban on social media for children” (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/20/uk-to-consider-australia-style-ban-on-social-media-for)

[3] Yahoo News - “UK to consult on social media ban for under 16s” (https://ca.news.yahoo.com/uk-consult-social-media-ban-223004819.html)

[4] Information Age (ACS) - “Around 5 million accounts hit by social media age ban” (https://ia.acs.org.au/article/2026/around-5-million-accounts-hit-by-social-media-age-ban.html)

[5] Fox News - “Australia removes 4.7 million kids from social media platforms” (https://www.foxnews.com/world/australia-removes-4-7m-kids-from-social-media-platforms-first-month-historic-ban)

[6] Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health - “Social media platforms make $11B in ad revenue from U.S. teens” (https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2024/01/social-media-platforms-make-11b-in-ad-revenue-from-u-s-teens/)

[7] WPP - “2025 Global End-of-Year Forecast” (https://www.wpp.com/-/media/project/wpp/files/investors/2025/tyny-2025-december-presentation.pdf)

[8] WARC - “Global ad growth forecasts upgraded on social media windfall” (https://www.warc.com/content/feed/global-ad-growth-forecasts-upgraded-on-social-media-windfall/en-GB/10987)

[9] PwC - “UK Online Safety Act” (https://www.pwc.com/us/en/services/consulting/cybersecurity-risk-regulatory/library/tech-regulatory-policy-developments/uk-online-safety-act.html)

[10] CMS LawNow - “2025 UK Online Safety Act Round-Up” (https://cms-lawnow.com/en/ealerts/2025/12/2025-uk-online-safety-act-round-up)

[11] Taylor Wessing - “Online safety in 2026: enhancement and enforcement in the EU and UK” (https://www.taylorwessing.com/en/interface/2025/predictions-2026/enhancement-and-enforcement)

[12] Sprout Social - “80+ Must-Know Social Media Marketing Statistics for 2025” (https://sproutsocial.com/insights/social-media-statistics/)

[0] Jinling API - Company Profiles and Financial Data of Meta (META) and Snap (SNAP)