After Kouzijiao and Swellfun, Which Listed Liquor Enterprises Can Stay Stable?

In 2025, China’s baijiu industry is experiencing the most severe adjustment cycle since 2015. Overlaid with three major pressures: intensified policy regulation, generational shift in consumption, and high channel inventory, the industry has fully shifted from “scale expansion” to “value-oriented deep cultivation”[1][2].

Indicator	Data	Interpretation
Total Inventory of Listed Liquor Enterprises (2025Q3)	Over RMB 170 billion	YoY growth of over 11%[3]
Channel Inventory Turnover Days	1,424 days	Nearly 4 years needed for digestion[4]
Price Inversion Ratio	Approximately 60% of enterprises	Most severe in the RMB 800-1500 high-end segment[4]
Industry Output (Jan-Oct)	2.902 million kiloliters	YoY decrease of 11.5%, marking the 9th consecutive year of decline[5]

Against this backdrop,

and were the first to release worrying annual results:

Enterprise	Revenue Change	Net Profit Change	Characteristics
Kouzijiao (603589.SS)	-	Expected to drop 50%-60%[6]	First annual forecast among baijiu stocks, possible first quarterly loss in Q4
Swellfun (600779.SS)	YoY decrease of 42%	YoY decrease of 71%[7]	The “second black swan”, weaker than brokerage expectations

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A comprehensive scoring model (full score: 120 points) was built based on financial indicators to systematically evaluate major listed liquor enterprises[0]:

Ranking	Liquor Enterprise	Comprehensive Score	Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)	ROE	Net Profit Margin	Revenue Growth
1	Kweichow Moutai	115/120	19.1x	36.5%	51.5%	+6.3%
2	Shanxi Fenjiu	100/120	17.0x	33.3%	32.7%	+5.0%
3	Wuliangye	95/120	14.3x	20.1%	34.6%	-50%
4	Luzhou Laojiao	90/120	13.5x	26.1%	42.1%	To be announced
5	Gujing Gongjiu	75/120	14.8x	18.6%	22.6%	-34.7%
6	Yanghe Co., Ltd.	55/120	46.7x	4.1%	10.6%	-9.3%
7	Swellfun	15/120	45.3x	-	-	-42%
8	Kouzijiao	0/120	-	-	-	-

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Absolute industry leader, leading in all financial indicators[0][8]

• Strong Profitability
  : Net profit margin as high as 51.51%, far exceeding the industry average
• Adequate Cash Flow
  : Current ratio of 6.62, quick ratio of 5.18, excellent financial flexibility
• Robust Growth Resilience
  : H1-3 2025 revenue of RMB 130.904 billion, YoY growth of 6.32%[9]
• Brand Moat
  : Although the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has adjusted, it still maintains pricing power in the over-RMB 1,000 price segment
• Accelerated Channel Reform
  : The iMoutai platform launched the Feitian series, promoting the normalization of the channel price system[10]

: Continued deepening of pricing and channel reform, equal emphasis on inventory de-stocking and profit recovery.

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Leader in light-aroma baijiu, with both high growth and high profitability[0][9]

• Steady Performance Growth
  : H1-3 revenue of RMB 32.924 billion, YoY growth of 5.00%, one of the few liquor enterprises achieving dual growth (revenue and profit)
• Outstanding Profitability
  : ROE of 33.28%, net profit margin of 32.73%, exceeding expectations for multiple consecutive quarters
• Surge in Market Share
  : Q3 2025 single-quarter revenue of RMB 8.96 billion, temporarily surpassing Wuliangye to rank second in the industry[9]
• Deepened National Layout
  : The Blue and White series continues to see volume growth, with relatively healthy terminal sales

: Whether it can solidify its third-place position in the industry and the formation of the new “Moutai-Wuliangye-Fenjiu” pattern.

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Low valuation + high dividend + high-end positioning[0]

• Most Attractive Valuation
  : P/E ratio of only 13.51x, at a historically low range
• Stable High-end Products
  : Guojiao 1573 is competitive in the RMB 1,000 price segment
• Leading in Low-alcohol Innovation
  : 38% ABV Guojiao 1573 has successfully tapped into young consumer groups[4]
• Generous Dividend Returns
  : Sustained high dividends in recent years, with attractive dividend yield

: Low debt risk, neutral financial stance, healthy free cash flow[0]

: Progress in price system recovery and national expansion of low-alcohol products.

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Leader in strong-aroma baijiu, valuation at a historically low level[0]

• Low Valuation
  : P/E ratio of 14.32x, P/B ratio of 2.86x
• Adequate Liquidity
  : Current ratio of 4.59, financially stable
• Reform in Progress
  : Piloting the “direct manufacturer-to-terminal distribution” model to optimize channel efficiency

: Q3 2025 revenue and net profit fell by over 50% YoY[4], facing obvious short-term pressure

: Stabilization of Wuliangye Classic prices and effectiveness of channel reform.

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[7]:

• Major shareholder Diageo is considering selling its Chinese assets, increasing strategic uncertainty
• Full-year net profit is expected to be only RMB 392 million, YoY decrease of 71%, worse than expected
• Q4 net profit of RMB 66 million, YoY decrease of nearly 70%
• Frequent executive adjustments, casting doubt on strategic execution capability

[6]:

• The traditional “large distributor system” has failed, with weak channel control
• Insufficient brand strength of the high-end “Jian” series, trapped in the dilemma of “neither high-end nor mass-market”
• Actual controller Liu Ansheng sold over RMB 300 million worth of shares in 2025, damaging market confidence
• If full-year net profit is as low as RMB 662 million, it will be the first quarterly loss since listing

According to data, the number of designated-scale baijiu enterprises decreased by over 100 in 2025, further enhancing industry concentration[10]:

Indicator	2024	2025
Revenue Share of Top 6 Liquor Enterprises	Approximately 60%	Nearly 80%
Net Profit Share of Top 6 Liquor Enterprises	Approximately 80%	Nearly 90%

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Phase	Time Window	Key Observation Indicators
Bottom-building Period	H1 2026	Inventory de-stocking progress, stabilization of Feitian Moutai wholesale price
Recovery Period	H2 2026	Recovery of business demand, warming of banquet scenarios
Rebound Period	From Q3 2026	Improvement in liquor enterprises’ cash flow, recovery of sales data

[4][5]:

• Kaiyuan Securities: Starting from Q2 2026, liquor enterprises’ performance growth rate will likely rise quarter by quarter against a low base
• CICC: Baijiu enterprise financial statements are expected to clear and improve in 2026, and the upward inflection point will gradually become clear
• Huachuang Securities: Improvement in channel and terminal cash flow may be a more forward-looking signal of cycle bottoming

1. Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS)
   - Industry benchmark, releasing reform dividends, reasonable valuation
2. Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SS)
   - Best growth potential, broad national expansion space
3. Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ)
   - Low valuation and high dividend, sufficient margin of safety

4. - Low valuation, need to observe reform effectiveness

• Swellfun (600779.SS) - Uncertainty from foreign shareholder, fundamentals still deteriorating
• Kouzijiao (603589.SS) - Defects in channel model, possible Q4 loss
• Yanghe Co., Ltd. - Significant performance decline, overvalued

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During the in-depth adjustment period of the baijiu industry, the

. The performance thunderstorms of Kouzijiao and Swellfun are by no means isolated cases, but rather epitomize the survival dilemma of small and medium-sized liquor enterprises.

Tier	Liquor Enterprise	Rationale for Stability
First	Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS)	Strongest brand power, most abundant cash flow, most determined reform
Second	Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SS)	Best growth potential, sustained release of light-aroma baijiu momentum
Third	Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ)	Lowest valuation, high dividend provides margin of safety
Fourth	Wuliangye (000858.SZ)	Large valuation recovery space, need to observe reform effectiveness

: Although the baijiu industry is expected to bottom out and rebound in 2026, the rebound will show structural differentiation. Investors should focus on leading liquor enterprises and avoid small and medium-sized ones with deteriorating fundamentals.

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[1] Baijiu Industry Structure Shifts, Competition Among Leading Players Intensifies - Sina Finance

[2] Baijiu Industry to See Polarization in 2026, Moutai and Wuliangye Face Transformation Challenges - Sohu Finance

[3] Moutai’s Sharp Price Cut: How Baijiu Stocks Can Survive the “Cold Winter” - Eastmoney

[4] Baijiu 2026: The Delayed and Long Bottoming Process Has Just Begun - The Paper

[5] Inventory Dilemma and Survival Battle: Can the Baijiu Industry Emerge from the Trough in 2026? - Jianniang Wang

[6] First Annual Performance Forecast in Baijiu Industry Released! Kouzijiao Expects 50% Net Profit Drop in 2025 - Hongxing Capital Bureau

[7] Second “Black Swan” in Baijiu Annual Reports: Swellfun Expects Over 70% Net Profit Drop - Cailian Press

[8] [Company Overview: 600519.SS](https://financial modeling prep API) - Gilin AI Data

[9] 2026 Observation: Baijiu Industry Structure Shifts, Competition Among Leading Players Intensifies - Caijing New Media

[10] Can the Baijiu Industry Bottom Out and Rebound in H2 2026? - Toutiao