Analysis Report on the Recovery of Business Banquet Demand in the Baijiu Industry

Based on the latest market research data and industry analysis reports, the recovery status of business banquet demand in the baijiu industry is as follows:

In the first three quarters of 2025, the total operating revenue of 20 A-share listed baijiu companies reached RMB 317.779 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.90%; total net profit was RMB 122.571 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.93%[1]. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to October 2025, China’s baijiu output was 2.902 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%, showing a trend of both volume and price decline[2].

The “weir lake” of channel inventory remains the core crux of the industry. According to data from the China Alcoholic Drinks Association, the industry’s average inventory turnover days reached 900 days in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10%; the total inventory of 20 A-share listed baijiu companies in the first three quarters reached RMB 170.686 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.32%[1].

Although the “alcohol ban” implemented in May 2025 caused a short-term impact on the business banquet market, market sentiment has gradually stabilized.

[3]. The extreme situation where liquor merchants in many regions saw sales and profits drop 30%-70% quarter-on-quarter in June 2025 has improved.

Data from CICC Research Report shows that the banquet market is approximately RMB 250 billion in scale, accounting for 40% of total baijiu sales. Among them, wedding banquets account for about 50%, followed by birthday banquets, college admission banquets, business banquets, etc.[4] The banquet market recovered significantly during the New Year’s Day period, especially during New Year’s Day and the Spring Festival, with improved sales vitality of products in the mid-to-high-end price segment.

The Central Economic Work Conference released positive consumption signals, proposing to “clean up unreasonable restrictive measures in the consumption field and unleash the potential of service consumption”[5]. Industry insiders believe that this policy is expected to drive the recovery of some baijiu business consumption scenarios, while restoring capital market confidence in the baijiu sector.

High-end baijiu (priced above RMB 800), relying on the volume control and price maintenance strategies of Moutai and Wuliangye, shows a trend of oscillating bottoming out and slow recovery. The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has stabilized after the previous decline[6].

The mid-to-high-end price segment (RMB 300-800) has a relatively lagging recovery process due to the highest inventory and the most severe price inversion. Inventory destocking is expected to be completed by 2028[7].

The RMB 50-300 price segment, relying on strong demand rigidity and low inventory advantages, is expected to stabilize first during the 2026 Spring Festival, achieving an expansion of over 10%[7].

In the first three quarters of 2025, only two companies, Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, achieved double growth in operating revenue and net profit[8]:

• Kweichow Moutai
  : Operating revenue of RMB 130.904 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%; net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 64.627 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.25%
• Shanxi Fenjiu
  : Operating revenue of RMB 32.924 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.00%; net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 11.405 billion, a slight increase of 0.48%

Shanxi Fenjiu’s single-quarter operating revenue in the third quarter of 2025 reached RMB 8.96 billion, temporarily surpassing Wuliangye (RMB 8.174 billion) to rank second in the industry[8]. A new industry pattern of “Moutai, Wuliangye, Fenjiu” is taking shape.

Industry analysts predict that

[7]. The recovery of consumption scenarios will still show the characteristics of “gradual and hierarchical”.

1. Sustained Efforts in the Banquet Market
   : Major baijiu enterprises are focusing on the banquet market to expand performance growth points
2. Rapid Growth of Online Channels
   : The affordable Feitian Moutai flash sale activity on the iMoutai APP remains popular, activating the home consumption and gift-giving consumer groups[3]
3. Rise of Instant Retail
   : The scale of the liquor instant retail market is expected to grow to RMB 72 billion in 2025[4]
4. Low-Alcohol Transformation
   : Wuliangye’s new 29-degree “Yijian Qingxin” (Love at First Sip) product exceeded RMB 100 million in sales two months after its launch, and Luzhou Laojiao’s 38-degree Guojiao 1573 has become a RMB 10 billion-level product[1]

Business banquet demand in the baijiu industry is

, but the recovery pace is slower than expected. The industry is currently in a period of in-depth adjustment, and the full recovery of business banquet scenarios still awaits improvement in macroeconomic expectations and the restoration of consumer confidence. It is expected that clearer stabilization signals will emerge in the second half of 2026, but full recovery will still take time.

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[1] Xinhua News Agency - “2025 Year-End Observation of the Baijiu Industry: Breaking Through in the Deep Water Zone, Anchoring New Growth in Restructuring” (http://www.news.cn/fortune/20251231/598b5722b80a4688922665fd844c0c4c/c.html)
[2] Xinhua News Agency - “2025 Year-End Observation of the Baijiu Industry” (http://www.news.cn/enterprise/20251231/e35fbbdcffcc45a588c9bd17fa441291/c.html)
[3] Sina Finance - “Has the Valuation Bottom Been Reached? Adjustment Logic and Future Growth Path of the Baijiu Industry” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-15/doc-inhhmamp3161637.shtml)
[4] Tencent News - “High-End and Mid-to-High-End Segments Take the Lead During New Year’s Day; the Liquor Industry Outlines a ‘Dual-Track Recovery’ Roadmap for 2026” (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260106A07LCC00)
[5] Xinhua News Agency - “2025 Year-End Observation of the Baijiu Industry: Breaking Through in the Deep Water Zone, Anchoring New Growth in Restructuring” (http://www.news.cn/enterprise/20251231/e35fbbdcffcc45a588c9bd17fa441291/c.html)
[6] Sina Finance - “Guojin Food & Beverage Liu Chenqian | Food and Beverage Industry Weekly Report: Moutai’s Price Level Continues to Recover” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-12-30/doc-inhewuuw9368695.shtml)
[7] Xinhua News Agency - “2025 Year-End Observation of the Baijiu Industry” (http://www.news.cn/food/20251231/970071d1a546486ea04b216e3667c66c/c.html)
[8] Sina Finance - “2026 Observation | Baijiu Industry Structure Changes; Competition Among Leading Enterprises Intensifies” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-06/doc-inhfknak5862622.shtml)