Analysis of Ronbay Technology's Regulatory Investigation and Investment Risk Assessment

On January 18, 2026, Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (Stock Code: 688005.SS) received a “Notice of Case Filing” from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). The CSRC decided to launch an investigation into the company on suspicion of misleading statements in the “Procurement Cooperation Agreement for Lithium Iron Phosphate Cathode Materials” signed with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL, 300750.SZ), which the company disclosed on January 14, 2026 [1][2]. Under the agreement, from Q1 2026 to 2031, Ronbay Technology is expected to supply 3.05 million tonnes of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials to CATL, with the total sales amount of the agreement exceeding RMB120 billion [1][2].

Affected by this negative news, Ronbay Technology’s stock closed at RMB33.18 per share on January 19, 2026, with a single-day drop of 11.16% [1]. Looking at the recent stock price trend, this event caused the stock price to plummet from around RMB37 before the announcement to around RMB33, with trading volume increasing significantly [0].

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Date	Event	Market Impact
January 13, 2026	Ronbay Technology announces RMB120 billion mega-order with CATL	Stock suspended from trading
January 14, 2026	Contract announcement released	Receives inquiry letter from Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE)
January 15, 2026	Responds to inquiry letter, admits RMB120 billion is an estimated figure	Continued trading suspension
January 18, 2026	CSRC launches investigation	Plummets after resumption of trading
January 19, 2026	-	Closes down 11.16%

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Based on the latest financial data, Ronbay Technology shows multiple risk indicators [0]:

Financial Indicator	Value	Risk Assessment
Earnings Per Share (TTM)	-RMB0.03	Loss-making status
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)	-1103x	Negative value indicates loss
Return on Equity (ROE)	-0.29%	Weak profitability
Net Profit Margin	-0.19%	Loss-making status
Gross Profit Margin	Below industry average	Questionable competitiveness

Looking at the financial report data of the past four quarters, the company’s profitability has continued to deteriorate [0]:

• Q3 2024
  : EPS of RMB0.22, revenue of RMB4.44 billion
• Q4 2024
  : EPS of RMB0.25, revenue of RMB3.76 billion
• Q1 2025
  : EPS of -RMB0.02, revenue of RMB2.95 billion
• Q3 2025
  : EPS of -RMB0.19, revenue of RMB2.74 billion (18.86% below expectations)

The latest quarterly results show that the company’s actual EPS was -RMB0.19, far lower than the analysts’ expected RMB0.06, representing a negative surprise of -410.88%; revenue of RMB2.74 billion also missed the expected RMB3.37 billion [0].

Financial analysis shows that the company adopts conservative accounting policies, and the high depreciation/capital expenditure ratio indicates that the company may have room for profitability improvement after future investments mature [0]. However, the latest annual report data shows that the company’s free cash flow is negative (-RMB1.252 billion), and the cash flow situation deserves attention [0].

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• Information Disclosure Violation
  : The CSRC clearly stated that the announcement is suspected of “misleading statements”, which is a violation explicitly prohibited by the “Securities Law” [1][2]
• Issues Exposed by SSE Inquiry Letter
  : In its response to the inquiry letter, the company admitted that “the total contract amount of RMB120 billion was estimated by the company”, and the original announcement was imprecise in its statement of the total contract amount [1]
• Potential Penalty Risk
  : According to relevant provisions of the “Securities Law”, listed companies that violate information disclosure regulations may face warnings, fines, and in severe cases, suspension or termination of listing

• Customer Concentration Risk
  : The transaction amount between the company and CATL accounts for an extremely high proportion of the company’s revenue, indicating excessive reliance on a single major customer
• Uncertainty in Order Execution
  : The company clearly stated in the announcement that “the final actual sales amount is uncertain”, and the procurement quantity and price are subject to actual orders [1]
• Intensified Industry Competition
  : The power battery cathode material market is highly competitive, and the company faces dual pressure from CATL’s self-produced materials and other suppliers

• Divergence Between Performance and Valuation
  : Despite the cumulative 51.93% increase in stock price over the past year [0], the company has sustained losses, and the valuation lacks fundamental support
• Distorted P/E Ratio
  : The current P/E ratio is -1103x (negative value), reflecting huge divergence in the market’s expectations for the company’s future profitability
• Risk of Correction Release
  : Hit by the regulatory negative news, the stock price may experience further value regression

Technical Indicator	Current Status	Signal Interpretation
20-Day Moving Average	RMB34.25	Stock price is below the moving average, under short-term pressure
50-Day Moving Average	RMB31.54	Medium-term trend is weak
200-Day Moving Average	RMB25.28	Long-term trend is bullish (but distorted in the short term)
Daily Volatility	3.81%	High volatility, high risk
Trading Volume	49.13M (January 20)	Plummeted with increased volume, obvious capital flight

From a technical analysis perspective, the stock price is currently below all short-term moving averages, and it plummeted with increased volume after the major negative news, indicating that market panic has not been fully released [0].

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Risk Category	Risk Level	Explanation
Regulatory Compliance Risk	★★★★★	CSRC has launched an investigation, high probability of subsequent penalties
Operational Risk	★★★★☆	Uncertain order execution, high customer concentration
Valuation Risk	★★★★☆	Loss-making performance diverges from high valuation
Liquidity Risk	★★★☆☆	Trading volume increased but mostly driven by panic selling
Litigation Risk	★★★☆☆	Investors may file civil compensation claims

1. Risk Hedging Considerations
   : Closely follow the progress of the CSRC investigation and assess the position risk exposure
2. Stop-Loss Discipline
   : Set a reasonable stop-loss level to avoid greater losses
3. Information Tracking
   : Focus on the company’s subsequent announcements, especially the investigation results and possible penalty decisions

1. Wait-and-See Recommended
   : Refrain from establishing or increasing positions until the investigation results are clear
2. Risk Awareness
   : Even if intending to bottom-fish, fully understand regulatory risks and performance risks
3. Diversified Investment
   : If holding relevant positions, reduce single-stock risk exposure through diversified investment

• This event reflects major flaws in the company’s information disclosure, and investors need to re-evaluate the company’s governance level
• Regulatory penalties may damage the company’s reputation, which in turn may affect cooperative relationships with important customers such as CATL
• The lithium battery industry as a whole faces overcapacity pressure, and the industry fundamentals do not support the company’s profitability reversal in the short term

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Ronbay Technology’s investigation by the CSRC is a typical case of information disclosure violations by a listed company, which is a

for investors. Taking into account regulatory risks, operational risks, valuation risks, and technical risks, it is recommended that investors adopt a stance, existing positions to avoid further losses.

From a long-term investment perspective, the new energy track where the company is located still has development potential, but the current risk release has not been completed. Investors should wait for the investigation results to become clear and the stock price to stabilize before re-evaluating the investment value.

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[1] Caixin - “Ronbay Technology Investigated by CSRC Over Suspected Misleading Statements in RMB120 Billion Order” (https://www.caixin.com/2026-01-19/102405447.html)

[2] Guancha.cn - “Won a RMB120 Billion Lithium Battery Mega-Order from CATL? Ronbay Technology Investigated by CSRC” (https://www.guancha.cn/economy/2026_01_18_804231.shtml)

[0] Jinling AI Financial Database - Real-time Market and Financial Data of Ronbay Technology (688005.SS)