In-Depth Analysis of Zijin Mining's Counter-Cyclical M&A and New Energy Strategic Layout

Based on the comprehensive data I have obtained, I now present the in-depth analysis report on

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Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. (Stock Codes: 601899.SS / 02899.HK) is one of China’s largest gold producers. In recent years, it has successfully transformed from a single gold miner to a comprehensive mining giant through its ‘counter-cyclical M&A’ strategy[1].

As of January 20, 2026, the closing price of Zijin Mining’s A-shares was

, with a total market capitalization reaching [0]. From a long-term perspective, the company’s stock price has risen for six consecutive years:

Time Period	Price Increase Performance
Past 6 Months	+91.63%
Past 1 Year	+129.04%
Past 3 Years	+213.27%
Past 5 Years	+253.31%

In 2025, precious metals experienced a historic bull market, with London spot gold rising by over 60% year-on-year and hitting a record high 50 times throughout the year, marking the strongest performance in nearly 40 years[1]. As a core beneficiary of the bull market with gold mining as its largest revenue-generating business, Zijin Mining is expected to achieve a net profit of

, representing a year-on-year growth of over 110%[1][2].

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As of the end of 2024, Zijin Mining’s controlled

, with . Its lithium resource reserves rank among the top 10 globally, and it is the third-largest in China, after Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium[3][1].

Zijin Mining has formed a strategic layout covering major global lithium resource belts:

Project Name	Geographic Location	Resource Volume (10,000 tons LCE)	Project Type	Strategic Value
Argentina 3Q Salt Lake	Argentina	763	Lithium Extraction from Salt Lake	High grade, low impurity, world-class salt lake asset
Qinghai Qarhan Salt Lake	Qinghai Province	400	Lithium Extraction from Salt Lake	Co-production with potassium fertilizer, synergy with Cangge Mining
Tibet Lagor Co Salt Lake	Tibet Autonomous Region	214	Lithium Extraction from Salt Lake	Important salt lake resource in western China
Hunan Xiangyuan Lithium Mine	Hunan Province	216	Hard Rock Lithium Mine	Scarce spodumene resource in China
Northern Manono, Democratic Republic of the Congo	Democratic Republic of the Congo	1,640	Hard Rock Lithium Mine	World’s 4th largest clay and hard rock lithium mine
Tibet Maimaco/Longmu Co Salt Lakes	Tibet Autonomous Region	Approximately 800	Lithium Extraction from Salt Lake	Obtained rights through Cangge Mining

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Zijin Mining’s counter-cyclical M&A strategy is the core driver of its trillion-dollar market capitalization. According to Frost & Sullivan data, from 2019 to 2024, the average acquisition cost of Zijin Mining’s acquired mines was approximately

, while the industry average acquisition cost during the same period was approximately , 52% higher than Zijin Mining’s[1]. This precise global bottom-following has created a low-cost advantage, giving the company sufficient confidence to cope with cyclical fluctuations.

In 2015, the global mining industry faced a winter, with Vale reporting a loss of US$12.1 billion and Glencore reporting a loss of US$4.964 billion. During this industry trough, Zijin Mining’s Chairman Chen Jinghe chose to go against the trend and boldly implemented the ‘counter-cyclical M&A’ strategy[1][2]:

• Acquired Australia’s Phoenix Gold Company
• Acquired Norton Gold Fields
• Acquired Congo’s Musonoi Mining
• Acquired Barrick (Papua New Guinea)

At the end of 2019, Zijin Mining acquired 100% equity of Continental Gold for

, gaining control of the Buriticá Gold Mine in Colombia. This mine is one of the highest-grade gold mines globally, laying a solid foundation for the company’s subsequent performance during the gold bull market[1][2].

In 2021, Zijin Mining officially put forward the goal of ‘striving to become an important enterprise in the global lithium industry’. Chairman Chen Jinghe adopted the counter-cyclical layout approach and acquired a large number of lithium mines during the industry trough[1][2]:

Time	Transaction	Amount	Core Assets
October 2021	Acquired Canada’s Neo Lithium	RMB 4.939 billion	Argentina 3Q Salt Lake Project
April 2022	Acquired Tibet Lagor Co Salt Lake	RMB 7.682 billion	70% equity
June 2022	Acquired Hunan Houdao Mining	RMB 1.8 billion	Xiangyuan Lithium Polymetallic Mine
July 2023	Capital Increase to Tianqi Lithium	Strategic Investment	20% equity of Shenghe Lithium, Yajiang Zuola Lithium Mine in western Sichuan
October 2023	Obtained Prospecting Rights for Northern Manono, DRC	Independent Application	World’s 4th largest hard rock lithium mine

In early 2025, Zijin Mining launched its largest single investment in history, acquiring approximately 24.82% equity of Cangge Mining for

and obtaining control. This investment achieved three strategic goals[1][2]:

1. Absolute Control of Tibet Julong Copper Mine
   – Strategic synergy of copper resources
2. Obtained Qinghai Qarhan Salt Lake Resources
   – Lithium extraction capacity from salt lakes
3. Obtained Rights to Tibet Maimaco, Longmu Co and Other Salt Lakes
   – Expanded resource territory

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Zijin Mining’s goal is not just to become a gold giant. Lithium ore is known as the ‘white oil’ for humanity’s future. With the explosive growth of new energy vehicles and energy storage industries, the demand for upstream metal resources such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt has surged[1]. Zijin Mining positions lithium resources as its

, forming three pillar businesses together with gold and copper.

Zijin Mining has made major breakthroughs in lithium extraction technology from salt lakes. In October 2023, a

jointly developed by Zijin Lithium Co., Ltd. and Fujian Yujia’ao Aquaculture Technology Co., Ltd. completed a scale-up test at the Argentina 3Q Salt Lake site, doubling the brine evaporation rate with the potential to increase it by more than 2 times[3]. This is a major breakthrough in the technical bottleneck of lithium extraction from salt lakes. Only a small amount of additional equipment is required on the basis of existing facilities to significantly increase brine processing volume and lithium carbonate output.

Zijin Mining’s proprietary ‘Ore Flow Five-Ring Integration’ management model takes the ore flow as its orientation, integrates and researches the five links of geological exploration, mining, mineral processing, metallurgy, and environmental protection, and controls the entire process, aiming to maximize economic and social benefits[3]. This model also plays an important role in lithium resource development.

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Since the second half of 2025, lithium carbonate prices have continued to rebound, rising from a low of

in June 2025 to in January 2026, with a cumulative increase of over [4][5].

Phase	Supply and Demand Characteristics
2023-2024	Period of concentrated production capacity commissioning, oversupply, lithium prices continued to fall to the bottom
2025	Excess capacity began to be cleared, supply and demand shifted to tight balance in the second half of the year, lithium prices rebounded
2026	Oversupply is expected to narrow to 80,000 tons, remaining in a tight balance state
2027	May officially shift to a shortage state

According to forecasts from multiple institutions, the central range of lithium carbonate prices in 2026 is expected to be

[4]:

• CITIC Securities
  : Driven by the continued strong demand for energy storage batteries, the lithium industry chain is expected to continue its destocking trend, and lithium prices may rise beyond expectations
• Li Liangbin, Chairman of Ganfeng Lithium
  : Lithium carbonate demand will grow by 30%-40% in 2026, and prices may break through RMB 150,000 per ton, even RMB 200,000 per ton
• Huaxi Securities
  : The destocking expectation supported by demand will form a solid support for the price bottom

The global lithium carbonate demand structure showed significant differentiation in 2025[4][5]:

Sector	2023 Share	2025 Share	Trend
Power Batteries	82%	78%	↓ Slight decline
Energy Storage Batteries	11%	15%	↑ Significant increase
3C and Others	7%	7%	→ Stable

The rigid driving effect of the energy storage sector on lithium resources is increasing. In 2026, the global new demand for energy storage batteries is expected to reach

, surpassing power batteries for the first time, accounting for more than of lithium consumption growth[5].

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Financial Indicators	2024	2025E	YoY Change
Operating Revenue	Approximately RMB 300 billion	Approximately RMB 320 billion	+6.7%
Net Profit	Approximately RMB 45 billion	RMB 51-52 billion	+13-15%
ROE	Approximately 26%	Approximately 30%	+4pct

Valuation Indicators	Value	Industry Comparison
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)	21.71x	Reasonable Range
Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B)	5.90x	Slightly Higher Than Industry Average
EV/OCF	16.76x	Moderate
ROE	30.60%	Excellent

The cost advantage established by Zijin Mining through counter-cyclical M&A is its core moat:

• Acquisition cost is
  52% lower
  than the industry average
• Copper, gold, and zinc reserves rank
  2nd, 5th, and 3rd globally
  , respectively
• Diversified mineral resources reduce cyclical risks of single commodities

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1. Abundant Resource Reserves
   : 17.88 million tons of LCE resources, 8.6 million tons of reserves, ranking among the top globally
2. Counter-Cyclical M&A Capability
   : Acquire high-quality assets at low cost, build a deep moat
3. Technological Advantages
   : Technological breakthrough in brine evaporation rate for lithium extraction from salt lakes, significantly increasing production capacity
4. Synergistic Effects
   : Three pillar businesses of gold + copper + lithium, resisting cyclical fluctuations of single commodities
5. Management Team
   : International management team led by Chairman Chen Jinghe

Risk Type	Specific Content	Impact Assessment
Lithium Price Fluctuations	Sharp fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices affect profitability	Need to pay attention to supply and demand changes in the medium term
Policy Risks	New energy subsidy policies, export tax rebate adjustments	May affect short-term demand
Geopolitical Risks	Policy risks of overseas projects (Argentina, DRC)	Need continuous attention
Exchange Rate Risks	Foreign exchange gains and losses from overseas businesses	US dollar asset exposure
Production Capacity Ramp-Up Risks	New project development progress falls short of expectations	Short-term performance release delay

1. Short-term (2026)
   : The precious metals bull market cycle continues, copper prices remain high, and the company’s performance is expected to continue to grow
2. Mid-term (2027-2028)
   : The lithium resource business enters the harvest period, and production capacity release contributes incremental profits
3. Long-term
   : Successful transformation to new energy, the three pillars of ‘gold + copper + lithium’ form a stable structure, with broad growth space

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Zijin Mining has successfully transformed from a single gold miner to a comprehensive mining giant through its

, with its lithium resource reserves reaching , ranking among the top 10 globally and 3rd in China. Against the backdrop of lithium carbonate prices rebounding from the bottom and the industry’s supply and demand pattern improving, Zijin Mining’s lithium resource business will become an important .

Relying on its low-cost acquisition advantages, abundant resource reserves, innovative technological breakthroughs, and excellent management team, the company is expected to continue to benefit from the new energy wave. Breaking through a trillion-dollar market capitalization is by no means the ‘end’ for Zijin Mining; in the future, as its lithium resource business gradually scales up, the company is expected to move toward higher development goals.

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[1] Eastmoney - “Surge of RMB 525 Billion! ‘Gold King’ Zijin Mining, Annual Net Profit Exceeds RMB 51 Billion” (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20260120085943647124360)

[2] OFweek - “Surge of RMB 525 Billion! ‘Gold King’ Zijin Mining, Annual Net Profit Exceeds RMB 51 Billion” (https://mp.ofweek.com/ai/a556714890637)

[3] Baidu Encyclopedia - “Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd.” (https://baike.baidu.com/item/紫金矿业集团股份有限公司/278634)

[4] Jiemian News - “2026 Global Lithium Price Annual Trend Forecast and Analysis” (https://m.jiemian.com/article/13882757.html)

[5] National Business Daily - “Increase of Over 25% Since the Start of the Year, Lithium Carbonate Expected to Return to the High of RMB 200,000 per Ton” (https://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2026-01-15/4221604.html)

[6] Autohome - “Lithium Carbonate Breaks RMB 150,000! Lithium Prices Rise 160% in Half a Year, Will Electric Cars Cost More in 2026?” (https://chejiahao.autohome.com.cn/info/24727475)