In-Depth Analysis Report on Jinkai Life Sciences' SNAC Intermediate Business

Based on the collected information, I will provide you with a comprehensive analysis report on Jinkai Life Sciences’ SNAC intermediate business.

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Jinkai Life Sciences (Stock Code: 301509.SZ), a domestic small-molecule CDMO service provider, has its SNAC (sodium 8-(2-hydroxybenzamido)octanoate) intermediate business as a key excipient for oral semaglutide (Rybelsus/Wegovy). As a penetration enhancer, SNAC can effectively improve the absorption and utilization rate of polypeptide drugs in the gastrointestinal tract, and it is one of the core differences that distinguish oral semaglutide from injectable formulations [1][2].

Looking at the business development trajectory, Jinkai Life Sciences established a partnership with Novo Nordisk in 2021, and its SNAC business has shown a high-growth trend:

Year	SNAC Intermediate Revenue (RMB 100 million)	YoY Growth (%)	Business Proportion (%)
2022	0.07	-	~1.0
2023	0.30	328.6	~4.2
2024 (Estimated)	0.55	83.3	~12.0
H1 2025	1.64	446.7	~33.5

, and this growth was mainly driven by the continuous volume expansion of oral semaglutide for diabetes indications [1][2].

Oral semaglutide (Rybelsus) was first approved for marketing in the European Union in 2019 for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. This drug solves the problem of extremely low oral bioavailability of polypeptide drugs by adding the SNAC penetration enhancer. The mechanism of action of SNAC includes: locally neutralizing gastric acid, inhibiting pepsin activity, promoting semaglutide to form a more penetrable monomer conformation, and achieving transmembrane transport through lipophilic insertion into gastric epithelial cell membranes [1][2].

In January 2024, Novo Nordisk announced that oral semaglutide (25mg dosage) for obesity indications was approved for marketing in the United States. UBS predicts that by Q1 2026, the number of prescriptions for oral semaglutide for obesity indications will reach 400,000, and it is expected to generate USD 100 million in revenue in its first quarter of launch [1][2].

Based on calculations from public information, the demand for SNAC for oral semaglutide is as follows:

• Per Patient Dosage
  : Regardless of the 14mg or 25mg formulation, each semaglutide tablet is combined with 300mg of SNAC. Calculated based on once-daily administration, the daily SNAC dosage is 300mg, and the annual dosage is approximately 109.5g per person per year
• U.S. Market Capacity
  : Based on a conservative assumption that 7-8 million people in the U.S. take oral semaglutide (based on 160 million obese patients in the U.S., 50% GLP-1 penetration rate, approximately 30% final market share of oral GLP-1, and 30% market share of oral semaglutide), the total annual SNAC dosage is approximately 766.5-876 tons (median value: 821 tons) [1][2]
• Market Size
  : The price of high-purity GMP-grade SNAC intermediate is approximately RMB 3,000-5,000 per kg. Calculated using the median value of RMB 4,000 per kg, the corresponding U.S. market capacity is approximately
  RMB 328.4 million

Scenario	Market Space (RMB 100 million)	SNAC Demand (tons)	Assumptions
Conservative Estimate (Global 2027)	10	~250-300	Forecast by Citeline/Evaluate Pharma
Base Case Estimate (U.S. Obesity Indications)	32.84	~821	7-8 million patients in the U.S., RMB 4,000 per kg
Optimistic Estimate (40% Market Share)	14	~328	Calculated based on 40% global market share

Jinkai Life Sciences is the

. Novo Nordisk acquired the oral drug delivery platform Emisphere Technologies for USD 1.8 billion in 2020, and SNAC is the core technology of this platform. Currently, there are only two companies worldwide with stable ton-level supply capacity: Jinkai Life Sciences and Novo Nordisk’s in-house production system [1][2].

Jinkai Life Sciences has built

, and this qualification barrier ensures the company’s competitive advantage in high-value markets. Obtaining cGMP qualification requires long-term technical accumulation and strict compliance review, forming a high entry barrier [1][2].

According to the company’s public communication information:

• Existing SNAC intermediate production capacity is approximately 1200 m³
• The Fuxin Base and Dalian Base are expected to add 200 m³, 400 m³, and 200 m³ of production capacity respectively in 2025-2026
• The Dalian Base has GMP production capacity with higher output value
• The fund-raising projects “Pharmaceutical Intermediate Project” and “Annual Output 190 Tons of High-End Pharmaceutical Products Project” are expected to be put into operation in mid-2026 [1][2]

Jinkai Life Sciences’ overall revenue fluctuated between RMB 490 million and RMB 770 million from 2021 to 2024. In 2024, its performance hit a low due to industry cyclicality and the decline in its agrochemical CDMO business:

Indicator	2023	2024	H1 2025	Q3 2025
Operating Revenue (RMB 100 million)	7.17	4.56	~3.2	4.88
Net Profit Attributable to Parent (RMB 100 million)	1.69	0.32	~0.7+	1.03
Net Profit Margin Attributable to Parent (%)	23.6	7.0	21.9+	21.1
Gross Profit Margin of Non-Fluorinated CDMO (%)	29.1	29.1	67.63	-

In 2025, the company’s performance recovered significantly, achieving operating revenue of RMB 488 million (+25.96% YoY) and net profit attributable to parent of RMB 103 million (+163.24% YoY) in the first three quarters [1][2][3].

In H1 2025, the gross profit margin of the company’s non-fluorinated CDMO business surged from 29.1% in 2024 to

, and this significant change directly reflects the performance contribution from the volume expansion of the SNAC business. As a high-value pharmaceutical intermediate, SNAC has a much higher gross profit margin than traditional CDMO businesses, becoming a key driver of the company’s profitability improvement [1][2].

Market institutions predict that with the volume expansion of oral semaglutide, especially for obesity indications in the U.S., Jinkai Life Sciences will enter a period of rapid growth in revenue and profits:

• 2025 Net Profit
  : Approximately RMB 130 million (high probability event)
• 2026 Net Profit
  : Conservatively expected to grow 50% YoY, corresponding to approximately RMB 200 million in net profit
• Valuation Level
  : The current dynamic P/E ratio is approximately 23x [1][2]

The concentrated commissioning of the company’s new production capacity in 2026 will provide stronger order undertaking capability for the SNAC business.

With:

• 200 m³ production capacity at Fuxin Base (2025)
• 400 m³ production capacity at Fuxin Base (2026)
• 200 m³ production capacity at Dalian Base (2026)
• 200 m³ GMP production capacity at Dalian Base (2026)

The company’s total production capacity will expand significantly, which can meet the incremental demand brought by the global volume expansion of oral semaglutide [1][2].

1. SNAC Business Enters High-Growth Period
   : Revenue doubled in 2024, reaching RMB 164 million in H1 2025
2. Significant Improvement in Profitability
   : Gross profit margin of non-fluorinated CDMO surged from 29.1% to 67.63%
3. Distinct Competitive Advantages
   : The only company in China explicitly designated as a SNAC supplier for Novo Nordisk, with FDA cGMP production capacity barriers
4. Capacity Expansion Supports Growth
   : New production capacity will be commissioned in concentrated batches in 2026 to undertake larger orders
5. Imminent Volume Expansion of Oral Semaglutide
   : Oral semaglutide for obesity indications in the U.S. is expected to see explosive commercial volume in 2026
6. Broad Market Space
   : Base case estimate puts the U.S. market at RMB 320 million, and Jinkai Life Sciences is expected to capture a 40% share (approximately RMB 140 million in revenue) [1][2]

1. Customer Concentration Risk
   : The SNAC business is highly dependent on the single customer Novo Nordisk
2. Price Fluctuation Risk
   : A decline in SNAC prices will affect gross profit margin and profits
3. Industry Competition Risk
   : Other suppliers may enter the SNAC market
4. Production Capacity Release Progress
   : The construction progress of new production capacity may fall short of expectations
5. Volume Expansion of Oral Semaglutide Falls Short of Expectations
   : There is uncertainty in the growth of patient penetration rate and prescription volume

Jinkai Life Sciences’ SNAC intermediate business has fully benefited from the global volume expansion of oral semaglutide. The SNAC business revenue indeed doubled year-over-year in 2024 (approximately RMB 55 million), and the explosive growth in H1 2025 (RMB 164 million) marks the company’s entry into the harvest period of its SNAC business.

Looking ahead, with the commercial volume expansion of oral semaglutide for obesity indications in the U.S. in 2026 and the concentrated commissioning of the company’s new production capacity in 2026, Jinkai Life Sciences is expected to enter a golden growth period for revenue and profits. In the base case scenario, if the company can capture 40% of the global SNAC market share, it will generate approximately RMB 140 million in revenue, equivalent to “rebuilding two Jinkai Life Sciences”.

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[1] Pedaily - Oral GLP-1 Booms

[2] Sina Finance - Oral GLP-1 Booms, Domestic “Water Sellers” Score Big Wins

[3] Securities Times - Jinkai Life Sciences’ 2024 Half-Year Report Disclosure

[4] Eastmoney - Jinkai Life Sciences Hits Trading Limit as Oral Semaglutide Tablets Approved for Domestic Marketing

[5] Xueqiu - Quick Overview of Core Conclusion: Calculated Based on 10 Million Annual Global Users of Oral Semaglutide

[6] Jinkai Life Sciences 2024 Annual Report Summary