In-Depth Investment Value Analysis Report of Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SS)

Now let me provide you with a systematic and comprehensive investment analysis report on Dongpeng Beverage:

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Dongpeng Beverage Group Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in China’s functional beverage industry, and its core product "Dongpeng Special Drink" holds an important position in consumers’ minds. After the company went public in 2021, its stock price experienced a significant increase, with a cumulative gain of over 400%[0]. As of January 20, 2026, the company’s market value is approximately RMB 135 billion, ranking among the top in the A-share food and beverage sector.

K-line Chart shows: From October 2025 to January 2026, the stock price fell from RMB 298 to RMB 257, a decline of approximately 13.66%, and is currently in a sideways consolidation phase[0]

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According to the performance forecast released by the company on January 13, 2026[1][2]:

Indicator	2025 Figure	Year-on-Year Change
Operating Revenue	RMB 20.76-21.12 billion	+31.07% to +33.34%
Net Profit	RMB 4.34-4.59 billion	+30.46% to +37.97%
Annual Revenue	Exceeded RMB 20 billion for the first time	Historic Milestone

1. "Operation Guided by Offtake" Strategy
   : The company continues to advance its nationalization strategy and strengthens operational capabilities through refined channel management
2. Chilled Display Expansion
   : Increases exposure of all product categories and drives terminal offtake
3. Multi-Category Development
   : While consolidating Dongpeng Special Drink, actively cultivates new growth drivers[1][2]

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• Terminal Coverage
  : Over 4.3 million terminal outlets
• Channel Depth
  : Covers nearly 100% of prefecture-level cities nationwide
• Digital Capabilities
  : Upgraded from "One Item One Code" to "Five Codes in One" technical system, connecting end-to-end data[3]

Product Category	Revenue Share in the First Three Quarters of 2025	Strategic Positioning
Dongpeng Special Drink	Core Product	Core Pillar
Dongpeng Hydrate Up	16.91%	Second Growth Curve
Dongpeng Daka	Continuous Volume Growth	Daily Consumption Market
Other New Products	Gradually Cultivated	Potential Growth Driver

The success of "Dongpeng Hydrate Up" validates the company’s mature capabilities in cross-category operation and platform-based development[2][3].

As of the first half of 2025, the company has planned and constructed

across multiple regions, of which , effectively ensuring supply chain efficiency in regional markets[2].

• Products have been exported to
  over 30 countries worldwide
• Established overseas subsidiaries in
  Indonesia and Vietnam
• The under-preparation
  Indonesia factory
  will be a key step in replicating supply chain capabilities overseas[3]

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Indicator	Figure	Industry Comparison	Evaluation
Return on Equity (ROE)	51.71%	Consumer industry average is about 15%	Extremely Excellent
Net Profit Margin	21.77%	FMCG industry average is about 10-15%	High Level
Operating Profit Margin	26.72%	Industry Excellent Level	Strong Operational Efficiency
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)	30.56x	Moderately high in the consumer industry	Valuation Has Reflected High Growth

• ROE has remained above 50% for consecutive periods, reflecting extremely strong shareholder return capability[0]
• Net profit margin has stably stayed above 20%, demonstrating brand premium and cost control capabilities
• Financial analysis rating is "Conservative", with prudent accounting treatment[0]

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Based on a professional DCF valuation model[0]:

Scenario	Intrinsic Value	Upside Relative to Current Stock Price
Conservative Scenario	¥584.21	+127.0%
Base Case Scenario	¥917.09	+256.3%
Optimistic Scenario	¥2,247.43	+773.2%
Probability-Weighted Value	¥1,249.58	+385.5%

Parameter	Figure
Revenue CAGR (5-Year Average)	33.7%
EBITDA Margin	23.5%
WACC	6.1%
Beta	0.26

• The base case scenario is based on 5-year historical average data, with an intrinsic value of approximately ¥917
• The current stock price of ¥257 corresponds to a P/E ratio of about 30x,
  which has partially reflected high growth expectations
• DCF indicates significant upside potential in the medium to long term, but requires continuous performance delivery[0]

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Indicator	Figure
Current Price	¥257.38
20-Day Moving Average	¥270.90 (Resistance Level)
50-Day Moving Average	¥267.09
Support Level	¥253.45
Beta	0.26 (Low Correlation with Broad Market)

Indicator	Status	Signal Interpretation
MACD	No Crossover	Weak
KDJ	K:22, D:37	Death Cross, Weak
RSI(14)	Oversold Zone	Potential Rebound Opportunity
Trend Judgment	Sideways Consolidation	No Clear Direction

Short-term momentum is weak, but the Beta value of only 0.26 indicates low correlation with the broad market and relatively good crash resistance[0]

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1. Health-Conscious Trend
   : Niche categories like electrolyte water and sugar-free tea are growing rapidly
2. Scenario-Based Demand
   : Evolves from a single "energy-boosting and fatigue-relieving" focus to a "Function+" ecosystem
3. Emerging Track Rise
   : The market size of Chinese-style health-preserving water surged 182% year-on-year[2]

• Dongpeng Special Drink ranks among the top in the functional beverage market
• Competition in the electrolyte water track is intensifying, requiring continuous investment in marketing resources
• Traditional giants (such as Red Bull) still dominate the high-end market[2]

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Dimension	Supporting Factors	Sustainability Assessment
Channels	4.3 million terminals + Digital Five Codes in One	Strong - Deep Moat
Products	Multi-Category Portfolio (Special Drink + Hydrate Up + Coffee, etc.)	Relatively Strong - Proven Successful Model
Brand	Top-Tier Mind Share in Functional Beverages	Strong - High Brand Barrier
Production Capacity	National Layout of 13 Major Bases	Strong - Supply Chain Guarantee
Strategy	Nationalization + Internationalization + Digitalization	Relatively Strong - Proven Execution Capability

1. Valuation Risk
   : The current P/E of 30.56x has reflected high growth expectations, with risk of valuation correction
2. Liquidity Risk
   : Current ratio of 0.84 < 1, inventory turnover is critical
3. Intensified Competition
   : Competition in the functional beverage and electrolyte water tracks is fierce
4. Raw Material Cost Fluctuations
   : Price volatility of packaging materials such as PET and white sugar impacts gross profit margin
5. Single Product Dependency
   : Dongpeng Special Drink still contributes the majority of revenue[0]

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Dimension	Rating	Explanation
Growth	★★★★☆	High growth for 5 consecutive years, 2025 growth rate of 31%+
Profitability	★★★★★	ROE of 51.71%, extremely excellent
Valuation Rationality	★★★☆☆	P/E of 30.56x is moderately high, requiring performance delivery
Strategic Execution	★★★★★	Clear path of nationalization + multi-category + internationalization
Technicals	★★★☆☆	Short-term momentum is weak, in sideways consolidation

• May accumulate positions in batches below
  ¥250
• Benefit from the company’s growth dividends, target price refers to the DCF base case of ¥917
• Requires 3-5 years of investment patience, track performance delivery

• Wait for technical signals of stabilization and rebound
• Monitor the effectiveness of the ¥253.45 support level
• Consider reducing positions near the ¥270.90 resistance level

• Valuation correction risk (current P/E is higher than historical average)
• Risk of falling short of performance expectations
• Risk of changes in the consumption environment

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Dongpeng Beverage’s "Gold-Making Formula" ——

—— has strong sustainability in the short term. The company’s outstanding performance of exceeding RMB 20 billion in revenue and 30%+ net profit growth in 2025 validates the feasibility and replicability of this business model.

1. Excellent Fundamentals
   : Indicators such as ROE of 51.71% and net profit margin of 21.77% lead the industry
2. High Growth Visibility
   : Channel network, product portfolio, and production capacity layout have formed a positive cycle
3. Valuation Requires Performance Support
   : The current price has partially reflected high growth expectations, need to continuously track performance delivery
4. Promising Long-Term Value
   : DCF valuation indicates significant upside potential, but it takes 3-5 years to realize

Dongpeng Beverage’s fundamentals remain solid, and its "Gold-Making Formula" has short-term sustainability, but the current valuation is relatively high. It is recommended that long-term investors accumulate positions on dips while short-term investors remain cautious.

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[0] Jinling AI Brokerage API Data - Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SS) Market Data, Financial Analysis, Technical Analysis, DCF Valuation

[1] CLS - "Dongpeng Beverage: 2025 Net Profit Expected to Grow 30.46%-37.97% Year-on-Year" (https://www.cls.cn/detail/2256290)

[2] Sina Finance - "Dongpeng Beverage’s 2025 Annual Performance Exceeds Expectations, Nationalization and Multi-Category Strategy Drive Revenue to Exceed RMB 20 Billion" (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/cn/2026-01-14/doc-inhhhnwt4046902.shtml)

[3] China.com - "Dongpeng Beverage’s 2025 Performance Expected to Grow Over 30%, the ‘Oriental Roc’ is Taking Off at the Right Time!" (https://hea.china.com/articles/20260115/202601151797605.html)