WTI Crude Oil Market Analysis: February 6, 2026

Based on comprehensive technical analysis, inventory data, and market fundamentals, here is my assessment of WTI’s marginal gain amid volatile inventories.

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WTI crude oil futures closed at on February 6, 2026, marking a modest gain of 0.41-0.63% on the session [0][1]. The intraday trading range was $62.20-$64.58, indicating continued volatility in the market.

Indicator	Current Value	Signal
20-Day MA	$61.82	+2.71% above
50-Day MA	$59.40	+6.90% above
RSI (14)	58.58	Moderate Bullish
MACD	1.2845	Positive momentum
Bollinger Band Position	70.3%	Upper half of range

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1. Price Positioning Within Ranges:
   WTI has rallied from its 90-day low of $54.98 (December 16, 2025) to current levels, placing it in the
   upper portion of its 3-month trading range
   ($54.98-$66.48). The Bollinger Band position of 70.3% indicates the market is approaching overbought territory rather than being in a sustainable uptrend [0].

2. RSI Analysis:
   The RSI reading of
   58.58
   sits in moderate bullish territory but has not reached overbought levels (70+). This suggests momentum is positive but not yet exhausted—a characteristic of corrective bounces rather than trend reversals [0].

3. MACD Signals:
   While the MACD histogram shows positive values (0.0675), the divergence between MACD and signal line is minimal, indicating
   weak conviction
   behind the recent price rise rather than strong directional momentum [0].

4. Persistent Surplus Fundamentals:
   Goldman Sachs projects a
   2.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) global surplus
   in 2026, with inventories expected to continue building through Q3 2026 [2][3]. This fundamental backdrop does not support a sustained demand-driven recovery.

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The latest EIA report (week ending January 30, 2026) presents a nuanced picture:

Inventory Category	Actual Change	Expected	Implication
Crude Oil Stocks	-3.5 million barrels	+489,000 barrels	Tighter supply
Gasoline Stocks	+685,000 barrels	+1.4 million barrels	Subdued demand
Distillates	-5.6 million barrels	-2.3 million barrels	Strong winter demand
Refinery Runs	-180,000 bpd	—	Lower processing

• The
  crude inventory draw (-3.5M barrels vs +489K expected)
  represents a bullish surprise that provided technical buying support [1][2]
• However,
  gasoline inventories reaching 5-year highs (257.9 million barrels)
  indicates weak domestic demand despite the holiday season [1][2]
• The
  sharp distillate draw (-5.6M barrels)
  reflects winter heating demand but may be seasonal rather than structural [1]

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Based on the current market structure, traders should prioritize the following indicators:

• Crude stock draws vs builds
  — A sustained drawdown trend would signal genuine supply tightening
• Gasoline inventory trajectory
  — Must see draws, not builds, to confirm demand recovery
• Refinery utilization rates
  — Above 92% indicates strong refining demand

• Watch for any
  production cuts or extensions
  beyond current quotas
• Saudi Arabia’s voluntary cuts remain critical to market balance
• March 2026 OPEC+ meeting is a key inflection point

• Strong inverse correlation with oil prices
• Fed policy trajectory will drive dollar and oil in opposite directions

• Iran nuclear talks (reportedly back on track) could add downside pressure if sanctions ease [1]
• Russia/Venezuela supply risks remain potential volatility drivers

• Import data and refinery throughput figures
• GDP growth trajectory for 2026

Level Type	Price	Significance
Resistance	$65.96	Bollinger Upper Band
Resistance	$66.48	Recent high (Jan 29)
Support	$61.82	20-Day MA
Support	$59.40	50-Day MA
Critical	$56.00	Goldman 2026 average forecast

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The market remains in a with a slight bullish bias. The inventory surprise provided a temporary technical bounce, but without sustained demand improvement, upside is limited to the $65-$66 resistance zone.

Goldman’s bearish forecast ($52 WTI average for 2026, potentially dropping to $50 by Q3) remains the baseline scenario [3]. Key risks to this view include:

• OPEC+ implementing deeper production cuts
• Geopolitical supply disruptions
• Stronger-than-expected global demand recovery

The 0.41% gain is more indicative of following the inventory surprise rather than a fundamental demand recovery. Traders should maintain a with stops above $66.50 and look for opportunities to fade rallies toward the $65-$66 level.

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[0] Ginlix API Data - WTI Crude Oil Price and Technical Analysis
[1] BNN Bloomberg - “US crude oil and distillate inventories fell last week” (February 4, 2026)
[2] Qatar News Agency - EIA Crude Oil Stocks Report (February 5, 2026)
[3] Reuters - “Goldman projects lower oil prices in 2026 as supply swells” (January 12, 2026)