S&P 500 November 2025 Performance: Correction vs. 2008 Crisis Context

The S&P 500 index has declined ~3.42% as of November18,2025, marking its worst November performance since the 2008 financial crisis [0]. However, this drop is less than half of the 2008 November decline (-7.48%) [1]. Funding markets remain stable compared to 2008: the TED spread is at0.09% (vs.2008 peak of4.57%) and the Chicago Fed NFCI index is -0.51 (indicating below-average stress) [4]. Sector rotation shows defensive sectors (Energy +2.01%, Utilities +1.17%) outperforming cyclical sectors (Consumer Defensive -1.62%, Consumer Cyclical -0.94%) [2]. Tech stocks have mixed performance: NVDA (-12.3% in November), MSFT (-4.5%), and AAPL (-0.6%) [5,6,7]. The VIX index (volatility) has risen ~43.8% in November, reflecting increased investor caution but remaining far below2008 levels [8]. Key drivers include Federal Reserve policy uncertainty (investors worry about delayed rate cuts in December) [3] and tech valuation concerns [7].

1. Correction vs. Crisis
   : The current decline is a market correction (stable funding conditions) rather than a systemic crisis like2008 (severe funding freeze) [4].
2. Defensive Rotation
   : Investor shift to Energy and Utilities indicates caution amid policy and valuation uncertainty [2].
3. Tech Valuation Pressure
   : NVDA’s significant drop (-12.3%) highlights concerns over stretched tech valuations [7].
4. Volatility vs. Funding Stability
   : Rising VIX (fear) contrasts with stable funding spreads, suggesting the drop is driven by sentiment rather than systemic risk [4,8].

• Federal Reserve delaying rate cuts in December could exacerbate market weakness [3].
• Further tech valuation pullbacks (especially NVDA) may continue [7].
• Increased volatility (VIX up ~43.8%) could lead to short-term market swings [8].

• Defensive sectors (Energy, Utilities) are outperforming, offering potential safe havens [2].
• Monitoring remaining November trading days may reveal if the decline stabilizes or reverses.

• NVDA: -12.3% | MSFT: -4.5% | AAPL: -0.6% [5,6,7]

Key takeaways: The current market decline is a correction driven by policy uncertainty and valuation concerns, not systemic risk. Stable funding conditions differentiate it from the2008 crisis.