Analysis of MSTR Leap Option Loss: Reddit Post on $80k to $740k to $1k Decline

This analysis is based on a Reddit post from r/wallstreetbets [6] published on November 23, 2025, detailing a user’s loss on MSTR long-term call options (‘leaps’).

The Reddit post highlights a retail investor’s loss on MSTR leaps, which aligns with broader market trends. MSTR’s stock dropped 62.26% over 90 days (July-November 2025) [0], driven by a 20% decline in BTC prices from ~$115k to ~$92k between October and November 2025 [1,4]. MSTR holds 640,808 BTC at an average cost of $74k [2], making its valuation highly correlated to BTC. Out-of-the-money (OTM) MSTR call options (e.g., $200 strike, November 2025 expiration) lost 65.93% of their value [3], reflecting the user’s experience of value erosion from peak ($740k) to $1k.

1. Crypto-Traditional Market Link
   : MSTR’s BTC holdings create a direct link between crypto volatility and traditional equity markets. A BTC drop below MSTR’s $74k average cost could trigger margin calls [2], impacting both MSTR and broader indices.
2. Retail Risk Management Gaps
   : The user’s failure to take profits or use stop-losses underscores a common retail investor pitfall with leveraged assets like MSTR options.
3. Index Exclusion Impact
   : Potential removal of MSTR from major indices (e.g., Nasdaq 100) could lead to $2.8B-$8.8B in outflows [5], amplifying selling pressure.

• Major Risks
  :
  a.
  BTC Price Risk
  : If BTC falls below $74k, MSTR may face margin calls, leading to further stock declines [2].
  b.
  Index Exclusion
  : Outflows from index funds could exacerbate MSTR’s price drop [5].
  c.
  Option Risk
  : Long-term options on volatile assets like MSTR are susceptible to both price decay and time decay, as seen in the user’s loss [3].
• Opportunities
  : For investors with robust risk management (e.g., stop-losses, profit-taking), MSTR may offer leveraged exposure to BTC, but this requires careful monitoring of BTC price movements [1,2].

• MSTR’s 90-day price decline: 62.26% [0]
• BTC’s October-November 2025 decline: ~20% [1,4]
• MSTR’s BTC holdings: 640,808 BTC at $74k average cost [2]
• OTM MSTR call option loss: 65.93% (November 2025, $200 strike) [3]
• Index exclusion outflow risk: $2.8B-$8.8B [5]