Market Overview Report: November 2025 Vibe Shift & Fed-Driven Rebound

The U.S. market has experienced a late-November rebound amid a dramatic shift in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, with odds of a December 25-basis-point cut rising from ~40% to ~81% [1][2]. This shift offset earlier concerns about tech sector sell-offs post strong earnings (e.g., NVIDIA, Palantir) and aligned with Reddit users’ observations of a disconnect between fundamentals and price action [user input][4][5]. The dominant narrative now centers on rate cut optimism, driving a rebound in growth sectors like technology after a month-long pullback [0][3].

From October 22 to November 21, major indices saw a pullback:

• NASDAQ Composite (-2.91%)
• S&P 500 (-2.05%)
• Dow Jones (-1.48%)
• Russell 2000 (-4.58%) [0]

Late November brought a rebound: NASDAQ futures up 1.4% and S&P futures up 0.6% as of Nov 24, driven by dovish Fed comments [3]. Recent sector performance shows:

• Top
  : Utilities (+3.23%, defensive play)
• Growth
  : Technology (+2.08%) and Energy (+2.09%)
• Worst
  : Consumer Defensive (-1.29%) [0]

1. Fed Rate Cut Expectations Surge
   : The CME FedWatch Tool now shows 81% odds of a December cut, up from ~40% earlier in November [1][2]. This shift followed dovish remarks from New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Christopher Waller, who cited a weakening labor market as justification for easing [2][3].
2. Earnings-Fundamental Disconnect
   : NVIDIA reported record Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue ($57B, +62% YoY) on Nov19, while Palantir posted 121% YoY U.S. Commercial revenue growth and raised FY guidance [4][5]. Despite these beats, both stocks faced post-earnings sell-offs, aligning with Reddit users’ observations of price-driven narratives over fundamentals [user input].
3. Sector Rotation
   : Utilities led gains (defensive caution), but Technology’s rebound signals renewed confidence in growth sectors amid rate cut hopes [0].
4. Labor Market Cooling
   : Fed officials highlighted a cooling labor market as a key factor for rate cuts, with data delays due to the government shutdown adding uncertainty [2].

• NVIDIA (NVDA)
  : Record Q3 earnings but post-earnings sell-off, reflecting market concerns about valuation and “bubble” narratives (per Reddit users) [4][user input].
• Palantir (PLTR)
  : Strong Q3 growth (63% YoY revenue) and raised guidance, yet faced similar post-earnings weakness [5][user input].

• Upcoming Catalysts
  : December10 Fed policy meeting (rate cut decision expected), holiday-shortened trading weeks (Thanksgiving) [3].
• Technical Levels
  : NASDAQ Composite’s 20-day moving average (~23185) as potential resistance [0].
• Risks
  : Delayed economic data (gov shutdown), inflation surprises reversing rate cut expectations, thin holiday volumes [2][3].

[0] Ginlix Analytical Database (get_market_indices, get_sector_performance tools)
[1] Morningstar - A December Interest Rate Cut Looks Likely—Again | URL: https://www.morningstar.com/markets/december-rate-interest-rate-looks-likelyagain
[2] Reuters - Dollar unfazed even as Fed cut comes back into view | URL: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-unfazed-even-fed-cut-comes-back-into-view-2025-11-25/
[3] Forex.com - S&P500 Forecast: SPX extends Friday’s rebound with Fed | URL: https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-and-analysis/s-p-500-forecast-spx-extends-friday-s-rebound-with-fed-rate-cut-expectations-in-focus-2025-11-24/
[4] NVIDIA Investor Relations - Q3 Fiscal 2026 Results | URL: https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2025/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-Third-Quarter-Fiscal-2026/default.aspx
[5] Palantir Investor Relations - Q3 2025 Results | URL: https://investors.palantir.com/news-details/2025/Palantir-Reports-Q3-2025-U-S--Comm-Revenue-Growth-of-121-YY-and-Revenue-Growth-of-63-YY-Guides-Q4-Revenue-to-61-YY-and-U-S--Comm-Revenue-to-121-YY-Raises-FY-2025-Revenue-Guidance-to-53-YY-Crushing-Consensus-Expectations/