Michael Burry's $379 Newsletter Launch: AI Bubble Thesis and Market Reaction Analysis

Michael Burry, the investor famous for predicting the 2008 housing crash, launched a paid Substack newsletter titled “Cassandra Unchained” on November 24, 2025, after deregistering his hedge fund Scion Asset Management [1][3]. The newsletter focuses on his bearish thesis of an ongoing AI bubble, drawing parallels to the 1990s dot-com mania and criticizing policymakers for ignoring bubble signs [1][4].

Key details from verified sources:

• Subscription Fees
  : $379 annual (CNBC) or $39 monthly (Yahoo Finance), with the annual option offering a ~19% discount [1][2].
• Initial Traction
  : Over 21,000 subscribers signed up at launch, generating potential annual revenue of ~$7.97 million (21k × $379) [3].
• Motivation
  : Burry stated he is “not retired” and has shifted full attention to the newsletter, moving away from active fund management [2][3].

The immediate market reaction to Burry’s launch was bullish for AI stocks he has publicly criticized:

• Nvidia (NVDA)
  : Closed up 2.05% at $182.55 on November 25, 2025, with volume exceeding the 30-day average by ~27% [1].
• Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
  : Rose 4.78% to $162.25, outperforming the broader tech sector [2].
• Technology Sector
  : Gained 2.0859% on the same day, aligning with ongoing positive momentum in AI-related earnings and growth prospects [4].

This bullish reaction suggests investors currently dismiss Burry’s bubble warnings, possibly due to Nvidia’s recent record earnings and strong AI demand [3].

• Newsletter Metrics
  : The dual pricing model ($379/year vs. $39/month) targets both long-term subscribers and those seeking flexibility, with initial revenue potential of ~$8 million annually [1][2][3].
• AI Stock Valuations
  : NVDA’s P/E ratio of 45.19 reflects moderate growth expectations, while PLTR’s 377.33 indicates extreme optimism for its AI-driven government and enterprise contracts [1][2].
• Sector Performance
  : The Technology sector’s 2.0859% gain ranks third among all sectors, trailing only Utilities (3.22%) and Energy (2.09%) [4].

Critical gaps to address:

1. Unavailable Newsletter Content
   : The detailed analysis and recommendations in Burry’s newsletter are locked behind a paywall, limiting public access to his full thesis [1][2].
2. Unknown Positioning
   : It is unclear if Burry retains any short positions in AI stocks after closing his hedge fund [3].
3. Long-Term Impact
   : The sustainability of Burry’s bubble thesis remains unproven, as current market sentiment is dominated by AI growth narratives [4].

Decision-makers should cross-reference Burry’s views with company earnings reports, macroeconomic data, and other analyst insights to avoid overreliance on a single source.

• Timing Risk
  : Even if Burry’s thesis is correct, premature action could lead to losses, as markets can remain irrational longer than expected (per user-provided Reddit discussion, Tier 3 source).
• Credibility Risk
  : Burry’s shift from closing his fund (stating he had no “pulse on the market”) to selling newsletter insights may erode trust, reducing the impact of his future calls [2][3].
• Earnings Risk
  : Investors should monitor AI companies’ quarterly results (e.g., Nvidia’s next earnings report) to assess whether growth justifies current valuations [3].

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All decisions should be based on personal research and consultation with a qualified financial advisor.

Note: Reddit discussion (user-provided) is classified as Tier 3 (moderate credibility) due to its user-generated nature.
Risk Warning: Users should be aware that timing the market based on Burry’s AI bubble thesis carries significant risk, as even well-founded bearish views can take years to materialize. Always conduct thorough due diligence before making investment decisions.