November 2025 Market Vibe Shift Analysis: Tech Weakness Amid AI Bubble Talk & Fed Uncertainty

: Reddit user observes a market vibe shift in November—tech cooling off, AI bubble talk, uncertain Fed rate cuts, and sell-offs unaligned with earnings.

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The market experienced a notable risk-off shift in November 2025, driven by AI bubble warnings from high-profile investors (e.g., Michael Burry) and uncertain Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Tech leaders NVIDIA (NVDA) and Palantir (PLTR) dropped 8% and14% respectively over two weeks despite strong earnings, reflecting a narrative-driven market where price movements override fundamentals. Defensive sectors (Utilities, Energy) outperformed, aligning with user reports of rotating to value/dividends [0][1][3].

From October22 to November21:

• S&P500: Down 2.05% ($6741 → $6602) [0]
• Nasdaq Composite: Down2.91% ($22941 → $22273) [0]
• Russell2000 (small caps): Down4.58% ($2483 → $2370) [0]

Latest sector performance (retrieved Nov25):

• Leaders: Utilities (+3.22%), Energy (+2.09%) [0]
• Laggards: Consumer Defensive (-1.29%), Basic Materials (-0.40%) [0]

This rotation to defensive sectors confirms the user’s observation of a mini risk-off phase.

###1. Michael Burry’s AI Bubble Warnings
Burry (of “Big Short” fame) criticized NVDA as the “Cisco of the AI boom” (paralleling the dot-com bubble) and called the AI rally a “glorious folly” [1][4]. His comments on November3 and19 correlated with:

• NVDA:8.16% drop over14 days (Nov5-Nov24) [0]
• PLTR:14.15% drop over14 days (Nov5-Nov24) [0]

###2. Uncertain Fed Rate Cuts

• CME FedWatch Tool: Only38% chance of a December rate cut [3]
• Conflict with earlier expectations: Goldman Sachs initially forecast a December cut [2]

This uncertainty reduced rate-cut optimism, contributing to risk-off sentiment.

###3. Price Over Fundamentals

• NVDA:53% net margin (strong earnings) but down8% [0]
• PLTR:28% net margin but down14% [0]

Both stocks have positive analyst upside (NVDA:+36.9% to $250; PLTR:+23.3% to $200) [0], yet price dropped—aligning with the user’s “price drives narrative” argument.

-14-day performance: $198.77 → $182.55 (-8.16%) [0]

• Analyst consensus: Buy (73.4% Buy ratings) [0]

-14-day performance: $189 → $162.25 (-14.15%) [0]

• Analyst consensus: Hold (62.5% Hold ratings) [0]

1. Fed’s December9-10 meeting: Decision on rate cuts [3]
2. Michael Burry’s Nov25 newsletter: More details on AI bubble concerns [4]

• Defensive sector strength (Utilities, Energy) [0]
• Tech stock oversold conditions (NVDA/PLTR analyst upside) [0]
• Fed rate cut probability shifts [3]

• Further AI bubble talk triggering deeper sell-offs
• Fed forgoing December rate cut
• Earnings misses in tech

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Note: All data retrieved from internal tools ([0]) and external sources ([1]-[4]) as of November25,2025.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.

: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making financial decisions.
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