MSTR Business Model Controversy & Market Impact Analysis: Ponzi Claims, MSCI Risk, and BTC Dependency

MicroStrategy (MSTR) faces scrutiny over its business model, with Reddit discussions claiming it operates like a ponzi scheme—raising funds via preferred stocks to buy BTC and paying dividends through further fundraising [4]. This model’s sustainability hinges on BTC prices and continued capital raising [1]. Financial metrics show MSTR’s net profit margin at -141.24% and current ratio at 0.66, indicating unsustainable operations and liquidity risks [1]. MSCI’s potential exclusion of BTC-heavy companies adds $2.8B in forced selling risk [2]. MSTR’s 40.16% one-month drop correlates with BTC’s decline from $126k to $87k [3].

Cross-domain connections link MSTR’s fate to BTC performance and index decisions. The ponzi-like model highlights funding dependency, while MSCI exclusion could amplify selling pressure. Bulls view MSTR as a leveraged BTC proxy (TD Cowen’s $535 target [2]), but bears emphasize unsustainable metrics and forced selling risk.

: MSCI exclusion leading to forced selling [2], negative profitability (-141.24% [1]), BTC price drops [3], liquidity concerns (current ratio of 0.66 [1]).
: BTC recovery driving MSTR rebound [2], potential BTC staking for returns [4], government support (per Reddit discussions [4]).

• MSTR’s one-month return: -40.16% [1]
• Net profit margin: -141.24% [1]
• MSCI decision date: Jan 15, 2026 [2]
• BTC price: $87k-$89k (down from $126k [3])
• MSTR holds ~640k BTC (largest corporate holder [2])