Tesla Stock Pop Analysis: Melius 'Must Own' Call vs. Bearish Reddit Counterarguments

On November24,2025, Tesla (TSLA) experienced an intraday 7% pop (high $421.72) driven by Melius Research’s ‘must own’ call (FSD progress/AI chips) before closing at $417.78 (+3.88% daily gain) [0]. This followed Yahoo News coverage of the analyst call and Musk’s AI chip comments [2]. However, Reddit users countered with bearish arguments: FSD is overhyped (Waymo’s Level4 autonomy vs Tesla’s Level2) [1], declining financials (Q3 earnings down37% YoY) [2], repetitive positive narratives, and a 7% pop being ‘sus’ amid reputation/sales issues [0]. Over 5 days (Nov20-25), TSLA gained +6.03% [0].

Cross-domain correlations: Tesla’s high valuation (259x P/E) [5] is tied to investor expectations of FSD/AI chip success, but execution delays (Optimus mass production pushed to2027) [3] and regulatory risks [4] could erode this premium. The gap between bullish analyst calls and bearish retail sentiment highlights market uncertainty about long-term growth.

: Legal/regulatory (NHTSA FSD probes, $242M Autopilot lawsuit) [4]; execution delays (Robotaxi fleet cut to~60 units) [3]; declining profitability (operating margin 4.74% below peers) [2]; high valuation leaving little room for disappointment [5].
: European FSD approval (Feb2026 target) [4]; AI chip monetization via partnerships; Optimus factory adoption [3].

• Stock Performance
  : Nov24 intraday 7% pop, +3.88% close, 5-day +6.03% [0].
• Financials
  : Q3 earnings down37% YoY, P/E=259x, net margin=5.55% [2,5].
• Autonomy
  : Waymo (Level4, 2500+ fleet) vs Tesla (Level2, requires human backup) [1].
• Execution
  : Optimus pilot production (5k units 2025) [3], Robotaxi delays [3].
• Risks/Opportunities
  : Legal probes, EU FSD approval, AI chip monetization.

This analysis is for informational purposes only—no investment recommendations.