NVDA Sell-Off Analysis: Investor Sentiment vs. AI Hardware Demand Claims by Google DeepMind's Amir Yazdan

On 2025-11-26 (EST), a Reddit post (ticker NVDA) discussed claims by Google DeepMind researcher/TPU engineer Amir Yazdan that the recent Nvidia stock sell-off reflects investor misunderstanding of AI hardware demand. Key discussion points included: bearish short-term views due to poor macroeconomic conditions reducing AI service demand (score:74), skepticism of Yazdan’s positive stance due to professional incentives (score:58), high agreement (score:171) on investor ignorance of AI hardware fundamentals, a bullish point on hidden B2B AI use cases (e.g., fraud detection saving $500k/month, score:3), and long-term risks from competition (China’s AI chips) or AI bubble burst (score:2) [2].

Nvidia’s (NVDA) stock experienced significant volatility in the 10 days leading to the event: a 7.81% drop on 2025-11-20 (from $195.95 open to $180.64 close) followed by partial recovery and further volatility [0][1]. The sell-off aligns with bearish Reddit comments on macroeconomic conditions reducing AI service demand [2].

Competition risks are rising: Meta Platforms is in talks to spend billions on Google’s AI chips, signaling potential erosion of Nvidia’s market dominance [6].

• Nvidia’s China business faltered in Q3 due to geopolitical issues and local competitors (Huawei, Alibaba) [13]
• CEO Jensen Huang warned China could win the AI race due to favorable energy policies and fewer regulatory bottlenecks [11]

The stock trades at a high valuation (P/E ratio:44.62) [0], but hidden B2B use cases suggest sustained demand [2].

• Financial Metrics
  : Market cap ($4.39T), P/E ratio (44.62) [0]
• Price Movements
  : 10-day net decline (~3.5% from $186.86 to $180.26) [1]
• Volume
  : Highest volume (343.5M shares) on 2025-11-20 (largest drop) [1]
• Valuation
  : DCF-estimated intrinsic value ($62/share) vs. current price (~$180) [1]

• Direct
  : Nvidia (NVDA) [0][1]
• Related
  : Google (GOOGL), AMD, Meta (META) [6]
• Sectors
  : Semiconductors, AI/ML, Cloud Computing [7]

1. Full text of Amir Yazdan’s original X post to verify AI hardware demand claims [3]
2. Exact breakdown of Nvidia’s revenue from hidden B2B use cases [2]
3. Detailed progress of China’s AI chip development (product specs, timeline) [11][13]
4. Sector-wide valuation metrics to assess AI bubble risks [5][1]

• Outcome of Meta’s Google chip deal [6]
• Nvidia’s upcoming earnings for B2B revenue updates [1]
• Launch of China’s AI chips and market adoption [13]
• AI sector valuation trends [5]

1. Valuation Risk
   : Users should be aware that Nvidia’s stock trades ~3x its DCF-estimated intrinsic value, offering no margin of safety [1].
2. Competition Risk
   : This development raises concerns about Google’s AI chips and China’s local players eroding Nvidia’s market share [6][13].
3. Regulatory Risk
   : US-China export controls impacted Nvidia’s China business; further restrictions may limit access [13][14].
4. Macroeconomic Risk
   : Poor economic conditions may reduce AI service demand, indirectly affecting chip sales [2].
5. Sentiment Risk
   : High agreement on investor ignorance suggests herd mentality-driven volatility [2].

Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.
All data is as of 2025-11-28 UTC.