Analysis Report: U.S. Black Friday 2025 Online Sales Hit Record $11.8B

On November29,2025 (EST), Adobe Analytics reported that U.S. Black Friday online sales reached a record $11.8 billion, marking a9.1% year-over-year (YoY) increase [1]. This news sparked a Reddit discussion with key arguments: (1) sales growth is driven by inflation rather than real economic growth; (2) consumers are relying on credit card debt to fund purchases; (3) the top10% of households are disproportionately driving consumption; and (4) post-holiday spending trends are more indicative of long-term economic strength [Event Content].

The record sales data had a moderate impact on the U.S. stock market on Nov29,2025. The Consumer Cyclical sector (retail and e-commerce) rose by 0.49% [0], reflecting positive but not exceptional investor sentiment. However, the Energy sector (1.13% gain) outperformed all others, suggesting the market’s focus extended beyond retail [0]. Mixed signals—nominal growth vs. declining order volumes—may have muted the reaction to Black Friday results [1].

1. Inflation vs. Real Growth
   :
   Adobe’s data showed a9.1% nominal YoY increase in online sales, but order volumes fell by1% and average selling prices (ASP) rose by7% [1]. This indicates a significant portion of growth stems from higher prices rather than increased purchase activity. The latest official CPI data (September 2025) was 3% [4], and Numerator’s October data for everyday goods reported 2.68% inflation [4], implying real growth of ~6%—though offset by lower order volumes.

2. Credit Card Debt Risk
   :
   The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that credit card balances over90 days delinquent hit12.4% (highest since 2011) [2]. While direct Black Friday credit card usage data is unavailable, this trend suggests some consumers may rely on debt for holiday purchases, raising default concerns [2].

3. Wealth Inequality
   :
   Forbes noted the top10% of households increased spending by58% YoY, while the bottom 80% grew by only 25% [3]. This confirms record sales are driven by higher-income groups, not broad-based economic strength [3].

4. Pre-Holiday Spending
   :
   Adobe’s Nov1-23 data showed a7.5% YoY increase in online sales—exceeding its 5.3% full holiday season forecast [5]. This hints at front-loaded spending, potentially reducing post-Black Friday growth [5].

• Directly Impacted
  : E-commerce retailers (Amazon, Shopify), omnichannel retailers (Walmart, Target), and consumer cyclical stocks.
• Related Sectors
  : Technology (AI-driven shopping tools), Financial Services (credit card issuers like Visa/Mastercard—though the Financial Services sector was slightly down (-0.00092%) on Nov29 [0]).
• Indirect
  : Logistics (UPS, FedEx) handling online orders.

• Information Gaps
  : Wait for November CPI data (Dec18) to confirm real growth; monitor Cyber Monday/December sales for post-Black Friday trends; track post-holiday credit card debt levels.
• Key Considerations
  : Concentration of spending among top10% households increases retail sector vulnerability to their spending shifts; rising delinquencies may lead to tighter lending standards.

1. Credit Card Delinquency
   : Users should be aware that the12.4% delinquency rate (highest since2011) may lead to future defaults, impacting financial institutions and consumer spending [2].
2. Wealth Inequality
   : The over-reliance on top10% households for sales growth could trigger retail sector downturns if their spending patterns change [3].
3. Inflation
   : Inflation erodes lower-income households’ purchasing power, limiting long-term spending growth [4].
4. Post-Holiday Spending
   : Monitor Cyber Monday and December retail data to assess if front-loading reduces future sales [5].

[0] get_sector_performance tool (2025-11-29)
[1] Yahoo Finance: AI helps drive record $11.8 billion in Black Friday online sales, URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-helps-drive-record-11-133358833.html
[2] Yahoo Finance: Number of Americans behind on credit card payments hits highest level since2011, URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/number-americans-behind-credit-card-145429318.html
[3] Forbes: The Government Needs Wealthy Consumer Spending To Keep GDP Growing, URL: https://www.forbes.com/sites/eriksherman/2025/02/26/the-government-needs-to-keep-the-wealthy-spending-and-gdp-growing/
[4] Yahoo Finance: Numerator October Consumer Price Index Reveals Prices for Everyday Goods Up2.68% vs2024, URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/numerator-october-consumer-price-index-133000947.html
[5] Forbes: November Online Sales Up7.5%, Showing Strong Start To Holiday Season, URL: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joanverdon/2025/11/26/november-online-sales-up-75-showing-strong-start-to-holiday-season/

: This analysis provides factual context and risk identification, not investment advice. Users should conduct independent research before making decisions.
: Rising credit card delinquencies and concentrated spending among high-income households may lead to volatility in retail and financial sectors. Monitor post-holiday data closely.