U.S. Black Friday Online Sales Record: Analysis of Inflation, Debt, and Inequality Debates

On November 29, 2025, U.S. Black Friday online sales reached a record $11.8B (up 9.1% YoY, Adobe Analytics) and $18B total US sales (Salesforce) [1]. Reddit discussions highlighted three key concerns—inflation, credit card debt, and wealth inequality—all supported by external data. Salesforce’s data shows a7% YoY increase in average selling prices but a 1% drop in order volumes, indicating nominal growth driven by inflation rather than real volume growth [1]. Credit card delinquencies hit a12-year high (12.4% of balances 90+ days late) [4], aligning with Reddit’s debt concerns. Bloomberg data reveals the top10% of households account for49.2% of U.S. consumer spending (Q22025), supporting claims of elite-driven consumption [3]. In-store traffic dropped3.6% YoY, reflecting a shift to online channels [1].

1. Nominal vs Real Growth
   : The record sales are primarily nominal, as inflation erodes real purchasing power (Salesforce’s price data confirms this).
2. Unsustainable Spending
   : High credit card delinquency rates suggest current spending patterns may not be sustainable, risking future consumption contraction.
3. Inequality Impact
   : The top10% driving nearly half of spending means economic resilience depends on this group, increasing volatility risk.
4. Pull-Forward Risk
   : Reddit users and analysts note the possibility of post-holiday spending drops as consumers front-load purchases during Black Friday.

• Credit Card Debt
  :12.4% delinquency rate may lead to reduced future spending and retail sector volatility [4].
• Inflation Uncertainty
  : The U.S. BLS delayed October CPI data (to Dec18), making real growth calculation impossible [2].
• Inequality Volatility
  : Over-reliance on top10% spending increases economic vulnerability if this group cuts spending [3].

• Luxury Retail
  : Salesforce identified luxury apparel/accessories as the top category, presenting potential benefits for luxury brands targeting high-income consumers [1].
• E-commerce
  : The shift to online (record online sales, in-store traffic drop) may benefit e-commerce platforms and tools providers like Adobe (ADBE) and Salesforce (CRM).

• Sales Metrics
  : $11.8B online sales (Adobe), $18B total US sales (Salesforce),7% price increase (Salesforce), 1% order volume drop (Salesforce) [1].
• Debt & Inequality
  :12.4% credit card delinquency rate (NY Fed), 49.2% top10% spending share (Bloomberg) [3,4].
• Data Gaps
  : Missing November CPI data (Dec18 release) and post-holiday spending data limit full analysis of economic health.