Altimmune (ALT) Valuation & Catalyst Analysis Post-Reddit Discussion

This analysis follows a Reddit discussion (2025-11-23 EST) framing Altimmune (ALT) as a “last chance” to buy under $5 [4]. The stock has since risen ~25.5% from $4.19 (Nov17) to $5.26 (Nov28), exceeding the $5 threshold [0][3]. Key drivers include anticipation of upcoming catalysts: 48-week IMPACT trial data (Q4 2025) and FDA End of Phase 2 meeting (Q4 2025) [2]. The 21% short interest (per the Reddit post) adds potential for volatility, as positive news could trigger a short squeeze [4]. Analyst consensus shows a 250.59% upside, with HC Wainwright boosting EPS estimates and Citizens JMP maintaining an Outperform rating (target $14) [1].

• The stock’s price movement reflects market confidence in upcoming catalysts, though the 24-week Phase 2b data (published in Lancet) showed MASH resolution but no significant fibrosis improvement—making the 48-week data critical [1][4].
• Altimmune’s $210.8M cash reserves (Q3 2025) provide a sufficient runway for Phase 3 trials, mitigating near-term financial risk [2].
• The Reddit post’s bullish argument about undervaluation relative to peers is balanced by bearish concerns about premature comparisons without full 48-week data [4].

• Risks
  : Binary catalyst outcomes (negative 48-week data or FDA feedback could lead to sharp declines), regulatory uncertainty (approval not guaranteed even with positive data), high short interest (reflects bearish sentiment), and negative EPS (-$1.07) [0][2][4].
• Opportunities
  : Potential short squeeze on positive news, acquisition interest from big pharma (amid patent cliffs), and analyst upside consensus [1][4].

Altimmune (ALT) trades at $5.26 with a $464.23M market cap [0]. Upcoming catalysts in Q4 2025 (48-week data, FDA meeting) are critical to watch. The stock has shown strong recent performance, but investors should monitor clinical data, catalyst timelines, and short interest changes.