Analysis of 2025 U.S. Black Friday Online Sales Record and Market Implications

U.S. Black Friday 2025 online sales reached $11.8B (9.1% YoY, Adobe Analytics) [1] and $18B total U.S. online sales (Salesforce, luxury apparel/accessories top category) [2]. Nominal growth adjusted for Numerator’s October CPI (2.68% YoY) [6] gives ~6.4% real growth, refuting the Reddit claim of inflation-only drivers but validating it as a partial factor. Reddit’s credit debt argument lacks direct data [8], though Visa/Mastercard profits rose (transaction volume up) [3]. Top10% households drive ~49% of spending (Bloomberg Q225) [4], aligning with Salesforce’s luxury category lead [2].

1. Wealth Inequality Link
   : Luxury sales growth (top category) reflects top10% spending dominance, making retail performance vulnerable to stock market corrections (top10% hold >90% equity wealth) [7].
2. Payment Processor Signals
   : Visa/MA profit growth indicates transaction volume increases but not debt levels (data gap [8]).
3. Post-Holiday Validation
   : Cyber Monday and December sales will resolve Reddit’s underspending concern.

• Post-holiday underspending risk (monitor Cyber Monday data).
• Wealth effect vulnerability: Stock market downturn could reduce top10% spending [7].
• Inflation persistence (2.68% above pre-pandemic levels) [6].

• Luxury retail outperformance (supported by top10% spending [4]).
• E-commerce growth (AMZN/WMT online sales strength [1][2]).

• Adobe: $11.8B online sales (9.1% YoY) [1]; Salesforce: $18B U.S. online sales (luxury top) [2].
• Real growth: ~6.4% (nominal minus 2.68% inflation) [6].
• Market moves (Nov28): AMZN(+0.86%), WMT(+1.11%), TGT(+0.38%), XRT(-0.40%) [0].
• Data gaps: Credit card debt share of sales [8], official CPI (delayed [9]).